Long Range Forecast: Can NOBODY 2, HONEY DON’T! Attract Late Summer Viewers?

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Long Range Forecast — August 15, 2025

Nobody 2 | Universal

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $8M – $12M

Starring Bob Odenkirk as a mild-mannered family man with a past as a government assassin, this sequel to the pandemic-era action comedy could find a larger audience based on the original’s awareness on streaming. The first Nobody, with an opening of $6.8M and a domestic gross of $27.5M, was the third highest-grossing film to come out in March 2021, lagging behind the much higher-budgeted Raya and the Last Dragon ($8.5M domestic opening) and Godzilla vs. Kong ($31.6M). Moving Nobody 2 to August, with its typical thin slate of theatrical releases, looks to be a smart move for Universal, though strong holdovers from this weekend’s release of fellow action-comedy The Naked Gun (est. opening range of $22M – $30M) could potentially eat into Nobody 2‘s debut.

Post-2020, Universal has released films across a wide swath of genres in August, with debut hauls ranging from $5.2M (2022’s Easter Sunday) to $22M (2021’s Candyman). Our forecasting panel puts Nobody 2 in the lower-middle section of that range, alongside fellow Universal August releases The Last Voyage of the Demeter (2023; $6.5M), Strays (2023; $8.2M), and Beast (2022; $11.5M). Other comps for Nobody 2 include 2017’s John Wick: Chapter 2 ($30.4M domestic opening) and Kidnap ($10M), both about seemingly normal leads who turn out to be badasses, and 2022’s Violent Night ($13.4M), like Nobody 2 an action comedy with a middle-aged male protagonist; that film, also from Universal, has its own sequel on the 2026 schedule.

Long Range Forecast — August 22, 2025

Honey Don’t! | Focus Features/Universal

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $2M – $4M

With Honey Don’t!, Ethan Coen returns to the lesbian detective comedy subgenre, this one starring an ensemble cast that includes Margaret Qualley, Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, Billy Eichner, and Chris Evans. 2024’s Drive-Away Dolls—using a similar concept and also starring Margaret Qualley, directed by Coen, co-written by Coen and wife/creative collaborator Tricia Cooke, and distributed by Focus Features—failed to garner much interest with a $2.5M debut and $5M theatrical run. A Cannes premiere for this title should help Honey Don’t! improve on that performance. Its August release date might also help; it’s the only wide release to hit theaters on the weekend of the 22nd, whereas Drive-Away Dolls shared its February release corridor with Crunchyroll/Sony anime Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Hashira Training ($11.5M) and Lionsgate’s Ordinary Angels ($2.3M), each of which ultimately outgrossed Drive-Away Dolls by well over $10M.

Tracking Updates [as of August 1]