The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 2 – 4, 2026
Week 1 | January 2 – 4, 2026
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | Week 3
Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Pros
- Avatar: Fire and Ash crushed it over the Christmas holiday, only dropping -29% with a $63M 3-Day weekend haul. That hold assured both the studio and exhibitors that James Cameron’s threequel has what it takes to help carry the business through a Q1 exceptionally dry of viable product. Of course, the real profits are being minted overseas, with the movie traveling beautifully in foreign territories just like the previous two films. The new entry now sits at the #6 position for 2025 worldwide grossers on its way to rolling over Jurassic World Rebirth ($869.1M) by tomorrow to take #5.
Cons
- Our forecast panel predicts another solid hold for Avatar over the New Year holiday, with an under -30% drop. After 12 days the sequel has earned $242.1M domestically, which is -23.8% lower than The Way of Water at this point in its run ($317.4M). However, with the new movie already at $851.6M WW striding towards the $1B mark before the end of the coming weekend, the studio can breathe a sigh of relief as it heads into certain profitability even with a reported $400M price tag.
2. Zootopia 2
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 6
Weekend Range: $10M – $13M
Pros
- Not only did Zootopia 2 surge week-over-week from #5 to #2, taking in $19.87M over the holiday 3-Day, it was just announced today that the sequel is now Disney’s highest grossing animated pic of all-time globally with $1.46B over Frozen II‘s $1.45B. It is the second-highest WW grosser of 2025 behind Ne Zha 2 ($2.15B), and with $333M stateside it stands as Walt Disney Animation’s fifth biggest domestic title. It will likely eclipse the first Zootopia ($341.26M) to become #4 before Sunday.
Cons
- We expect Zootopia 2‘s holiday hot streak to continue, as it’s on par with Marty Supreme in showtime market share (9%), but has wider appeal and a shorter running time. Still, with being the sixth frame, it may mark a turning point in audience saturation for the Disney title. Now that we’re 35 days into release the movie is still lagging behind last year’s Moana 2 at this same point in time ($404M), unlikely to catch up.
3. Marty Supreme
A24 | Week 3
Weekend Range: $10M – $13M
Pros
- Still, we can’t count Marty Supreme out from the #2 slot yet, just as we warned last week that it could rise the ranks and cross into multiplex territory. Marty has been holding great over the holiday season in its expansion, where it took in $17.7M from the 3-Day frame. It could very easily claim second place over a Thanksgiving release like Zootopia if last week’s word of mouth translates (“B+” CinemaScore).
Cons
- The biggest con this frame is that no studio saw fit to release any new product to give the North American market a beginning-of-the-year boost. Like 2025, theaters will have to ride the wave of holdovers well into Q3, with no guaranteed boffo titles until the second Super Mario movie arrives in April.
Share this post