Long Range Forecast — May 8, 2026
The Sheep Detectives | Amazon MGM
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $20M
Hugh Jackman stars in this adaptation of Leonie Swann’s murder mystery novel Three Bags Full, in which a flock of sheep attempts to figure out who murdered their shepherd (Jackman). Compared to other recent family titles combining CGI and live-action—a list that includes the three Sonic the Hedgehog movies; 2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog ($16.6M); 2022’s Lyle Lyle Crocodile ($11.4M); and 2024’s If ($33.7M domestic opening), Harold and the Purple Crayon ($6M), and The Garfield Movie ($24M)—our predicted range for The Sheep Detectives is on the low side, reflective of the source material’s relatively low profile and Amazon MGM’s new-kid-on-the-block status as a theatrical distributor. That said, Q2’s slate is largely lacking in PG-rated animated titles until the mid-June release of Toy Story 5, so solid word-of-mouth on The Sheep Detectives could drive traffic during the six weeks between the two films.
Long Range Forecast — May 8, 2026
Mortal Kombat II | Warner Bros.
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $50M – $60M
Mortal Kombat II finally hits theaters in early May, some eight months after Warner Bros. shifted its original October 2025 release date to this summer in the wake of a well-received first trailer. The film’s new release date speaks to Warner Bros.’ confidence in its earnings potential; early pre-sales information (tickets went on sale yesterday) will provide more insight on that front. One almost-sure thing is that Mortal Kombat II will open higher than its immediate predecessor, April 2021’s Mortal Kombat ($23.3M domestic opening), which was one of the first studio titles to welcome moviegoers from the pandemic. The presence of fan-favorite character Johnny Cage (Karl Urban), absent from the 2021 Mortal Kombat, also gives the sequel a leg-up in terms of advance buzz. Our $50M – $65M opening range puts Mortal Kombat II alongside the $53.1M domestic opening of 2013’s The Wolverine, a one-off X-Men movie that, like Mortal Kombat II, combines genre elements with a heavy combat component.
Tracking Updates [As Of 4/10/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 4/10 | You, Me & Tuscany | $8M – $12M | Universal |
| 4/17 | Lee Cronin’s The Mummy | $15M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 4/17 (ltd), 4/24 (wide) | Mother Mary | $2M – $4M | A24 |
| 4/24 | Michael | $65M – $80M | Lionsgate |
| 5/1 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 | $85M – $100M | 20th Century Studios |
| 5/1 | Animal Farm | $5M – $7M | Angel Studios |
| 5/1 | Hokum | $3M – $5M | Neon |
| 5/8 | The Sheep Detectives | $10M – $20M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/8 | Mortal Kombat II | $50M – $60M | Warner Bros. |
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