The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 26 – 28, 2026
Week 25 | June 26 – 28, 2026
1. Toy Story 5
Disney/Pixar | Week 2
Weekend Range: $75M – $85M
Showtime Market Share: 26%
Pros
- After a record $159.67M opening for both the franchise and 2026, Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is expected to lead another solid weekend at the box office. Our prediction panel is expecting a hold along the lines of Toy Story 4 for the latest entry, which dropped -51% to take $59.7M in this exact slot in 2019. With excellent critical, audience, and box office results, Toy Story 5 is expected to own the opening weekend benchmark for 2026 until Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens in late July.
Cons
- With Minions & Monsters hot on its heels July 1, then the live-action Moana July 10, Toy Story 5 is facing some of the heaviest family competition of the year. At 92% Rotten Tomatoes critical we are also seeing some cracks in the once bulletproof franchise, which has always enjoyed near-universal acclaim. It’s a minor downtick, but could also be an indication of fatigue for the 30-year-old brand.
2. Supergirl
Warner Bros./DC Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Showtime Market Share: 19%
Pros
- After an auspicious debut with last year’s Superman ($354.2M domestic/$618.7M global), DC Studios is back with its sophomore theatrical outing Supergirl. Directed by Cruella‘s Craig Gillespie, it stars Milly Alcock of House of the Dragon fame as a punk rock version of the title character, with David Corenswet returning as the Man of Steel while Jason Momoa hangs up his Aquaman PJ’s to portray fan fav anti-hero Lobo. This is the third attempt at a filmic interpretation of Kara Zor-El after a clunky Superman-less 1984 solo film starring Helen Slater evaporated with $14.29M, as well as Sasha Calle’s grimdark portrayal in The Flash movie three years ago. There was also a popular six-season TV Supergirl from 2016-2021.
Cons
- Supergirl never really took off beyond the $40M baseline in our forecasting, which is why we expect an opening weekend along the lines of Disclosure Day in the mid-$40M’s. Unlike that alien movie, Supergirl could have greater longevity thanks to a wider target audience and a whole month until the next Spider-Man movie. Despite the goodwill from last year’s hit, this may be the rare event-level superhero film (costs north of $150M) that does not debut to $100M globally. On the domestic front, this is looking to open lower than DC’s 2023 misfire The Flash ($55M), despite none of the optics liability that movie strode into theaters with. Part of the problem is the new movie feels slightly passé, a mishmash of Captain Marvel‘s girl power and an aesthetic that screams “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 4.” Early Rotten Tomatoes reviews are veering unfavorably at 57%, which means the likelihood of replicating Superman‘s holding power is less likely.
3. Jackass: Best and Last
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
Paramount is going for that R-rated counter-programming dollar with Jackass: Best and Last, the sixth and “final” installment in the crude stunt series getting a wide launch on 2,800+ screens, along with a special fan event at 7pm local time Thursday. The most recent entry, Jackass Forever, was the weakest in terms of lifetime earnings. Here is how the franchise performed previously…
- Jackass: The Movie (2002) – $22.76M opening/$64.28M total
- Jackass: Number Two (2006) – $29M opening/$72.77M total
- Jackass 3D (2010) – $50.35M opening/$117.2M total
- Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (2013) – $32M opening/$102M total
- Jackass Forever (2022) – $23.15M opening/$57.7M total
Cons
- The new Jackass will play to Gen X core, which can be fickle on opening weekends. Another strong showing from Obsession, the indie horror movie that cannot be stopped, could be in the cards and would knock Jackass back to fourth place. The Johnny Knoxville-led franchise also has very little overseas cache, so Paramount can expect the vast majority of the movie’s bank from domestic sales. Only 19 overseas territories will be launching the film, including Germany, Italy, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
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