Long Range Forecast – July 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $230M – $250M
Franchise IP has had a tough go of things so far in July, with Supergirl underperforming compared to expectations and Moana en route to the same this weekend. With Spider-Man: Brand New Day, that trend looks to be changing; pre-sales started off strong and tracking has been ticking upwards, indicating that even if, as our forecasting panel currently predicts, Brand New Day doesn’t open to Spider-Man: No Way Home numbers, it should still give cinemas a welcome boost as they close out the summer.
Debuting to $260.1M domestically in December 2021, Spider-Man: No Way Home gave the webslinger his biggest opening weekend to-date, surpassing second-place opener Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M) by over $100M. That film, though, was part of the Tobey Maguire era; among Spider-Man movies starring Tom Holland, Brand New Day is expected to open closer to No Way Home‘s $260.1M than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s $117M or Spider-Man: Far From Home‘s $92.5M.
Both Homecoming and Far From Home came out the first weekend of July; Sony’s decision to move Brand New Day to the end of the month, giving it that “one last blockbuster before the summer’s over” sauce, could prove a smart move if it’s able to drive repeat viewings through the comparatively quiet month of August. That failed to happen last year with The Fantastic Four: First Steps, which opened to $117.6M and then dropped 67 percent in its second week. Exhibitors will be hoping for a repeat of 2024, when Deadpool and Wolverine closed out the summer with a $211.4M domestic opening en route to a $636.7M total.
Tracking Updates [As Of 7/10/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 7/10 | Evil Dead Burn | $25M – $32M | Warner Bros. |
| 7/10 | Moana | $45M – $55M | Disney |
| 7/17 | The Odyssey | $100M – $110M | Universal |
| 7/31 | Spider-Man: No Way Home | $230M – $250M | Sony |
Share this post