Long Range Box Office Forecast: 80 for Brady and M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin

Photo Credits: Universal ("Knock at the Cabin"); Paramount ("80 for Brady")

This week’s update takes a first look at February with two major studio releases slated to hit on the month’s first frame, and the week before the Super Bowl.

80 for Brady
Paramount Pictures

PROS:

  • Early marketing is somewhat encouraging in its impact on social media given the target older female audience that doesn’t factor heavily in that realm, though its likely to do with Tom Brady and the NFL’s own cultural footprint.
  • Timed to the week before the Super Bowl, some crossover appeal is possible with older men.

CONS:

  • The overall tracking universe is modest with a likely comparison ending up being Poms more than Book Club, especially given the older female audience’s slower return to movie theaters in recent times.
  • Opening one week before Magic Mike’s Last Dance will cut into long-term appeal among women.

Knock at the Cabin
Universal Pictures

PROS:

  • M. Night Shyamalan has a consistent fan base that turns out for his theatrical releases, with Old being a notably solid performer during early pandemic recovery in July 2021.
  • Social metrics are encouraging for this original thriller with trends initially lining up to the likes of M3GAN, Smile, and The Black Phone as Cabin targets a Gen X and Millennial audience that has supported genre films very well lately.

CONS:

  • Shyamalan films are particularly sensitive to audience reception, so reviews and marketing will be important leading up to release if there’s to be any breakout potential here.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/6/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
1/13/2023 The Devil Conspiracy         Third Day Productions
1/13/2023 House Party $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $25,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023 A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion) $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $30,000,000 – $60,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023 Plane $2,000,000 – $7,000,000 -50% $5,000,000 – $22,000,000 -50% Lionsgate
1/20/2023 Missing $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $24,000,000   Sony / Screen Gems
1/20/2023 The Son         Sony Pictures Classics
1/20/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film         Crunchyroll / Sony
1/25/2023 Pathaan         Yash Raj Films
1/27/2023 Distant         Universal Pictures
1/27/2023 Fear         Hidden Empire Film Group
2/3/2023 80 for Brady $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $17,000,000 – $38,000,000   Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023 Knock at the Cabin $18,000,000 – $27,000,000   $44,000,000 – $81,000,000   Universal Pictures
2/3/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film         Crunchyroll / Sony

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

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