As four-week tracking runs into the end of the year this week, no new additions join the report as studios currently have their slate of wide releases set for prior to December 30.
Next week, look for first public tracking on Universal Pictures’ M3GAN as it’s set to open on January 6, 2023.
With that in mind, though, here’s a quick recap of where things stand for key releases set to hit theaters over the remainder of this holiday season:
- Avatar: The Way of Water continues to ramp up marketing with increased social impressions and engagement over the past two weeks since tickets went on sale. Combined with positive pre-sale trends and consumer sentiment, forecasts are beginning to shift toward the mid-to-upper of tracking ranges — the upper bounds of which are showing signs of expansion due in part to higher average ticket prices than recent blockbusters.
A leggy run, on top of a potential all-time top 4 or 5 debut among December releases, remains highly likely. The pace of back-loaded post-preview sales for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are beginning to align more closely with the likes of Top Gun: Maverick rather than the Thursday-heavy trends of franchise films from Marvel or The Batman.
- Despite the recent underperformance of Disney’s Strange World, families are still expected to turn out in stronger numbers for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish later this month. The sequel held Early Access screenings over Thanksgiving weekend with healthy turnouts that reinforce prior tracking ranges.
- As expected, Father Stu: Reborn isn’t generating much traction as next week’s re-issue trends down from already conservative expectations.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/2/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|12/9/2022||Empire of Light (Limited)||Searchlight Pictures|
|12/9/2022||Father Stu: Reborn||$250,000 – $750,000||-33%||$500,000 – $1,875,000||-33%||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|12/9/2022||Spoiler Alert (Expansion)||Focus Features|
|12/9/2022||The Whale (Platform)||A24|
|12/16/2022||Avatar: The Way of Water||$150,000,000 – $180,000,000||+13%||$526,000,000 – $741,000,000||+13%||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/21/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||$14,000,000 – $23,000,000||$95,000,000 – $160,000,000||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|12/21/2022||The Whale (Expansion; Platform on Dec. 9)||A24|
|12/23/2022||Babylon||$4,000,000 – $9,000,000||$18,000,000 – $39,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|12/23/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$65,000,000 – $115,000,000||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Women Talking (Platform/Limited)||United Artists Releasing|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.