Long Range Box Office Forecast: Barbarian

Photo Credits: 20th Century Studios ("Barbarian")

This week’s report takes a look at the post-Labor Day frame when Disney and 20th Century Studios are set to release Barbarian. The film recently moved into the September 9 slot after Warner Bros. vacated the weekend by shifting Salem’s Lot to April 21, 2023.

Brief notes regarding the slow period of late summer now taking effect are also included.

PROS:

  • Beast and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero continue to track mostly on par with expectations as they each enter their final week before release. Both will enjoy premium format presences (IMAX for the latter).
  • Barbarian is fairly well-positioned in early-to-mid September after a dearth of new releases. Social metrics are generally positive and indicate potential appeal to young horror/thriller fans.

CONS:

  • As continually noted, the remainder of August looks unlikely to produce another film opening at $20 million or higher unless something breaks out beyond tracking.
  • Barbarian will likely need positive review buzz to help it stand out even in a barren market as 20th Century Studios titles have had a spotty history at the box office since being Disney began distributing them.

    Early metrics aren’t overwhelmingly ahead of where Warner Bros.’ hybrid release Malignant stood at the same point last year, so some model adjustments could be expected in the weeks ahead. Still, some allowance for upside performance is given to Barbarian for now since it will be exclusive to theaters.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/11/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
8/19/2022 Beast $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $31,000,000 – $49,000,000   Universal Pictures
8/19/2022 Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 -11% $16,000,000 – $31,000,000 -11% Sony / Crunchyroll
8/26/2022 The Invitation $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $20,000,000 – $35,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear         Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Three Thousand Years of Longing         United Artists Releasing & MGM
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.         Focus Features
9/2/2022 Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)         Universal Pictures
9/2/2022 Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Version         Sony Pictures / Columbia / Marvel Studios
9/9/2022 Barbarian $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $22,000,000 – $37,000,000   20th Century Studios

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.