This week’s report takes a look at the post-Labor Day frame when Disney and 20th Century Studios are set to release Barbarian. The film recently moved into the September 9 slot after Warner Bros. vacated the weekend by shifting Salem’s Lot to April 21, 2023.
Brief notes regarding the slow period of late summer now taking effect are also included.
PROS:
- Beast and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero continue to track mostly on par with expectations as they each enter their final week before release. Both will enjoy premium format presences (IMAX for the latter).
- Barbarian is fairly well-positioned in early-to-mid September after a dearth of new releases. Social metrics are generally positive and indicate potential appeal to young horror/thriller fans.
CONS:
- As continually noted, the remainder of August looks unlikely to produce another film opening at $20 million or higher unless something breaks out beyond tracking.
- Barbarian will likely need positive review buzz to help it stand out even in a barren market as 20th Century Studios titles have had a spotty history at the box office since being Disney began distributing them.
Early metrics aren’t overwhelmingly ahead of where Warner Bros.’ hybrid release Malignant stood at the same point last year, so some model adjustments could be expected in the weeks ahead. Still, some allowance for upside performance is given to Barbarian for now since it will be exclusive to theaters.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/11/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $31,000,000 – $49,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 8/19/2022 | Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | -11% | $16,000,000 – $31,000,000 | -11% | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| 8/26/2022 | The Invitation | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||
| 8/26/2022 | Fear | Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG) | ||||
| 8/26/2022 | Three Thousand Years of Longing | United Artists Releasing & MGM | ||||
| 9/2/2022 | Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. | Focus Features | ||||
| 9/2/2022 | Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release) | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 9/2/2022 | Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Version | Sony Pictures / Columbia / Marvel Studios | ||||
| 9/9/2022 | Barbarian | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $37,000,000 | 20th Century Studios |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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