This week’s report takes an early look at forecasts for a trio of early May films slated to counter-program Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
Additional updates and tracking ranges are below.
PROS:
- Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter (May 12) hopes to capitalize on the 2018 film’s success, which earned $68.6 million domestically and $104.4 million worldwide. Preliminary models indicate its Mother’s Day weekend debut will be advantageous and strongest with “women over 50”, projected to represent more than 60 percent of its audience.
- Knights of the Zodiac (May 12) marks a live-action attempt to cash in on the surging box office prowess of the anime genre. The film is based on a popular Japanese manga series and shows early signs of potential with audiences that turned out for the likes of Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village, One Piece Film Red, and others.
- Recently moved up one week to a May 5 release, Love Again will play strongest to women over 25 and Celine Dion fans as her music and celebrity are integral to the plot. Initial comparisons are in line with 2019’s Last Christmas. The pic offers a counter to the male-driven Guardians tentpole opening that same weekend.
CONS:
- Much like Downton Abbey: A New Era one year ago, Book Club 2 is likely to be more front-loaded as a sequel — especially compared to its predecessor, which opened one week after Mother’s Day. Preliminary models are most comparable to 80 for Brady and Ticket to Paradise.
- Marketing reach and word of mouth will be important for Knights of the Zodiac as, even though it avoids the opening weekend of Guardians, the film’s predominately male audience will still be in market competition with the Marvel sequel (especially if the latter generates positive reception). Facing Fast X one week later likewise won’t do it any long-term favors without a broader crowd-pleasing aspect.
- Love Again‘s late release date move and minimal marketing up to this point indicate bearish outlooks as it presumably was shifted to avoid competing with Book Club 2 head-to-head.
- Closer on the horizon, Evil Dead Rise has come down to earth in updated tracking models, though it’s hard to rule out a last-second pop next week. After one week of pre-sales, it’s becoming clearer that Warner Bros.’ marketing muscle is not investing near as heavily into this franchise horror revival as TriStar Pictures did with 2013’s revamp, which opened to $25.8 million at the time.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 4/14/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 4/21/2023 | Beau Is Afraid (Wide) | A24 | ||||
| 4/21/2023 | Chevalier | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||
| 4/21/2023 | The Covenant | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $27,000,000 | MGM & STX Films | ||
| 4/21/2023 | Evil Dead Rise | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | -52% | $22,000,000 – $36,000,000 | -52% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 4/28/2023 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $54,000,000 – $86,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 4/28/2023 | Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Sony / AFFIRM Films | ||
| 4/28/2023 | Polite Society | Focus Features | ||||
| 4/28/2023 | Sisu | Lionsgate | ||||
| 5/5/2023 | Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 | $120,000,000 – $155,000,000 | $288,000,000 – $403,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||
| 5/5/2023 | Love Again | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $13,000,000 – $32,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | ||
| 5/6/2023 | UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo (Moderate) | Iconic Events Releasing | ||||
| 5/12/2023 | Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $49,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 5/12/2023 | Hypnotic | Ketchup Entertainment | ||||
| 5/12/2023 | Knights of the Zodiac | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Sony Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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