Long Range Box Office Forecast: Bullet Train and Easter Sunday

Photo Credits: Sony Pictures ("Bullet Train"); Universal Pictures ("Easter Sunday")

This week’s report takes a first look at August and the final month of summer movie season with two additions to the tracking calendar.

Bullet Train
Sony Pictures
August 5, 2022

PROS:

  • Brad Pitt’s appeal at the box office has been on display again in recent years thanks to the success of Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and the positive impact his cameo had on this year’s The Lost City. He was also the primary draw for Ad Astra in 2019 despite middling receipts.
  • Late summer is largely barren as high-profile, major studio films go. There’s room for this ensemble action-comedy to turn into a crowd-pleaser, especially among male audiences. Bad Bunny could provide a notable boost to young male appeal.

CONS:

  • While Pitt is arguably one of the last remaining star draws of his generation, this is a test even by his standards as a film without a significant built-in audience.

Easter Sunday
Universal Pictures
August 5, 2022

PROS:

  • Comedian Jo Koy’s fan base and the potential to attract an under-served Filipino-American audience are strengths for this original comedy.
  • Summer has been light on traditional comedic films, and the runway into fall before Bros releases at the end of September is wide open.

CONS:

  • Counter-programming Bullet Train may ultimately be a strength, though it seems reasonable to expect some adult audiences will up for grabs by both films depending on reviews and word of mouth. Not being timed closer to Easter itself seems a bit odd, but ultimately could be a non-factor.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/7/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
7/15/2022 Marcel the Shell With Shoes On         A24
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 -21% $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 -21% Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 -15% $48,000,000 – $85,000,000 -15% Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 -10% $100,000,000 – $175,000,000 -10% Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $120,000,000 – $210,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Vengeance         Focus Features
8/5/2022 Bullet Train $28,000,000 – $34,000,000   $85,000,000 – $120,000,000   Sony Pictures
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday $14,000,000 – $19,000,000   $48,000,000 – $70,000,000   Universal Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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