This week’s report takes a first look at August and the final month of summer movie season with two additions to the tracking calendar.
Bullet Train
Sony Pictures
August 5, 2022
PROS:
- Brad Pitt’s appeal at the box office has been on display again in recent years thanks to the success of Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and the positive impact his cameo had on this year’s The Lost City. He was also the primary draw for Ad Astra in 2019 despite middling receipts.
- Late summer is largely barren as high-profile, major studio films go. There’s room for this ensemble action-comedy to turn into a crowd-pleaser, especially among male audiences. Bad Bunny could provide a notable boost to young male appeal.
CONS:
- While Pitt is arguably one of the last remaining star draws of his generation, this is a test even by his standards as a film without a significant built-in audience.
Easter Sunday
Universal Pictures
August 5, 2022
PROS:
- Comedian Jo Koy’s fan base and the potential to attract an under-served Filipino-American audience are strengths for this original comedy.
- Summer has been light on traditional comedic films, and the runway into fall before Bros releases at the end of September is wide open.
CONS:
- Counter-programming Bullet Train may ultimately be a strength, though it seems reasonable to expect some adult audiences will up for grabs by both films depending on reviews and word of mouth. Not being timed closer to Easter itself seems a bit odd, but ultimately could be a non-factor.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/7/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 7/15/2022 | Marcel the Shell With Shoes On | A24 | ||||
| 7/15/2022 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris | Focus Features | ||||
| 7/15/2022 | Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | -21% | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | -21% | Paramount Pictures |
| 7/15/2022 | Where the Crawdads Sing | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | -15% | $48,000,000 – $85,000,000 | -15% | Sony / 3000 Pictures |
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | -10% | $100,000,000 – $175,000,000 | -10% | Universal Pictures |
| 7/29/2022 | DC League of Super-Pets | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $210,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 7/29/2022 | Vengeance | Focus Features | ||||
| 8/5/2022 | Bullet Train | $28,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $48,000,000 – $70,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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