With no new wide releases coming to theaters for the weekend of August 25, this week’s report takes a look at how the month’s key releases are shaping up.
- With the sustained holdover success of July releases Barbie and Oppenheimer, August looks poised to be a healthy month overall.
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (August 2, Paramount) continues to track well as a late summer animated offering that will appeal to young and older fans alike. Pre-sale trends are well ahead of Elemental and not far behind those of Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.
- Meg 2: The Trench (August 4, Warner Bros.) provides a late summer, PG-13 action-horror-comedy hybrid for audiences looking to end the summer on a lighter note after the longer, more dramatic genre films that have come earlier. Blue Beetle (August 18, Warner Bros.) hopes to ride the same wave among DC comic fans and Latin American families, while Strays (August 18, Universal) aims for the older audiences on the comedy spectrum.
- As Barbie and Oppenheimer settle in for leggy runs that could see both films rank highly on the box office chart moving into early fall, their success is likely to overshadow some upcoming releases—especially if the ongoing WGA and SAG/AFTRA prevents studios from marketing those newer films as much as they otherwise would have.
- Meg 2‘s marketing campaign has left something to be desired, and early pre-sales reflect a lower initial burst of enthusiasm than seen for its 2018 predecessor. It’s likely to be the most impacted by the current Barbenheimer craze.
- Gran Turismo (August 11, Sony) remains a wild card as it hopes to build beyond its core video game fan base. Pre-sales are relatively slow out of the gate.
- Blue Beetle and The Last Voyage of the Demeter (August 11, Universal) continue to trend very modestly as marketing begins to ramp up. Strays remains a volatile film to forecast due to reasons mentioned in prior reports.
- The final weekend of August is currently without a major studio title, meaning holdovers will have to carry the market before The Equalizer 3 (September 1, Sony) opens for Labor Day weekend.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/27/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|8/2/2023||Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem||$27,000,000 – $36,000,000||$39,000,000 – $55,000,000||$101,000,000 – $145,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|8/4/2023||Meg 2: The Trench||$22,000,000 – $27,000,000||-17%||$59,000,000 – $81,000,000||-17%||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/11/2023||Gran Turismo||$15,000,000 – $20,000,000||$35,000,000 – $55,000,000||Sony Pictures|
|8/11/2023||The Last Voyage of the Demeter||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||$14,000,000 – $28,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|8/18/2023||Back on the Strip||Luminosity Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Blue Beetle||$12,000,000 – $17,000,000||$27,000,000 – $55,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/18/2023||The Hill||Briarcliff Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Strays||$18,000,000 – $28,000,000||$45,000,000 – $80,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|8/25/2023||The Hill||Briarcliff Entertainment|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
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