Long Range Box Office Forecast: Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution Could End February as a Solid Counter-Programming Duo

Photo Credits: Universal ("Cocaine Bear"); Lionsgate ("Jesus Revolution")

This week’s web-based edition of long range tracking looks at the final frame of February, currently set for the release of two very different films in another encouraging studio counter-programming move.

Cocaine Bear
Universal Pictures
February 24, 2023

PROS:

  • Social media buzz has ignited following the start of marketing late last year for this outlandish take on a true story.
  • Universal has a strong reputation for delivering with niche and original films, and the R-rated comedic approach here could be attractive for some audiences.

CONS:

  • Social media growth is healthy in relative terms, though the overall universe of sentiment, trailer impressions, and other metrics aren’t quite at the level of the studio’s recent Violent Night.
  • Opening one week after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and one week before Creed III (not to mention a March filled with male-driven films), the fuse on this may be fairly short unless word of mouth exceeds expectations.

Jesus Revolution
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company
February 24, 2023

PROS:

  • Initial trailer and social impressions are very positive with sentiment scores comparable to the likes of The Shack and I Can Only Imagine, the latter of which was distributed to great success by the same studios.
  • As an uplifting counter-programmer with less direct competition in the market, this could be a sleeper candidate to watch for if word of mouth is strong and faith-based crowds that have supported titles like The Chosen in recent times turn out in strong numbers.

CONS:

  • Marketing reach and crossover to the less grassroots-driven audience will have a big say in how well the film can open initially, creating some volatility in expectations for how long legs will be.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/27/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
2/1/2023 BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas         Trafalgar Releasing
2/2/2023 The Chosen: Season 3 Finale $8,000,000 – $11,000,000   $13,000,000 – $17,000,000   Fathom Events / Angel Studios
2/3/2023 80 for Brady $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 +50% $38,000,000 – $64,000,000 +47% Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023 The Amazing Maurice         Viva Pictures
2/3/2023 Knock at the Cabin $19,000,000 – $27,000,000   $47,000,000 – $77,000,000   Universal Pictures
2/3/2023 Sword Art Online The Movie -Progressive- Scherzo of Deep Night         Crunchyroll / Sony
2/10/2023 Magic Mike’s Last Dance $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 -15% $38,000,000 – $58,000,000 -15% Warner Bros. Pictures
2/10/2023 Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $18,000,000 – $34,000,000   Paramount Pictures
2/15/2023 Marlowe $1,000,000 – $3,000,000   $2,500,000 – $8,000,000   Open Road Films
2/17/2023 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $98,000,000 – $128,000,000 +3% $249,000,000 – $339,000,000 +3% Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023 Of An Age (Limited)         Focus Features
2/21/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film         Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023 Cocaine Bear $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $18,000,000 – $36,000,000   Universal Pictures
2/24/2023 Jesus Revolution $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $23,000,000 – $51,000,000   Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Universal ("Cocaine Bear"); Lionsgate ("Jesus Revolution")
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