Long Range Box Office Forecast: Creed III Tracking for a Healthy March Opening Round

This week’s long range tracking welcomes the addition of Creed III as the film is slated to kick off an anticipated March slate of wide theatrical releases.

Creed III
March 3, 2023


  • Preliminary social metrics are healthy with positive sentiment marshalling around the return of Michael B. Jordan and Tessa Thompson alongside franchise newcomer Jonathan Majors, who will be fresh off the most prolific role of his young career so far in February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
  • Opening two weeks after the aforementioned Marvel Studios film, and two weeks before Shazam! Fury of the Gods, gives this sequel some padding to draw its core adult male audience.
  • The prior entries, Creed and Creed II, combined to generate $225.5 million domestically with near-equal runs between them ($109.8 million and $115.7 million, respectively) thanks to strong critical and commercial reception that built upon the legacy of the Rocky franchise.


  • The absence of Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky Balboa character will likely be felt here to some extent, particularly among the older generations who turned out for the previous two films when he was featured in a major role each time.
  • Early tracking bears that expectation out with trailer imprints and social data not quite reaching the level of the most recent sequel at the same point before release, underscoring some expectation for natural diminishing returns.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/3/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Expected Location Count Distributor
2/10/2023 Magic Mike’s Last Dance $16,000,000+   $38,000,000+   TBD Warner Bros. Pictures
2/10/2023 Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $18,000,000 – $34,000,000   1,800 Paramount Pictures
2/15/2023 Marlowe $1,000,000 – $3,000,000   $2,500,000 – $8,000,000     Open Road Films
2/17/2023 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $98,000,000 – $128,000,000   $249,000,000 – $339,000,000     Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023 Of An Age (Limited)           Focus Features
2/21/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film           Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023 Cocaine Bear $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $18,000,000 – $36,000,000     Universal Pictures
2/24/2023 Jesus Revolution $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $26,000,000 – $55,000,000     Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023 My Happy Ending           Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023 Mummies (Limited)           Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023 Creed III $25,000,000 – $34,000,000   $71,000,000 – $98,000,000     MGM
3/3/2023 Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village           Crunchyroll / Sony

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

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