Thanksgiving is within the sights of long range tracking, and this week sees four new additions to cover for the typically busy North American holiday corridor.
PROS:
- Devotion could turn into a fair play among audiences that helped drive Midway to $56.9 million domestically in 2019 as the aerial action-based drama counter-programming bigger releases over the holiday window.
- The Fabelmans has already cemented itself as an early Oscar candidate thanks to industry screenings and a 94 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. Steven Spielberg’s ode to his own life story, and a strong ensemble cast, could stand out among audiences if marketed effectively.
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery follows up the $41.4 million five-day breakout opening of Knives Out three years ago during the same holiday frame. Daniel Craig’s return in the lead role, alongside a new ensemble cast under the helm of returning writer/director Rian Johnson, will be beneficial.
Early ticket sales are encouraging, and preliminary (but volatile) tracking compares favorably with last year’s House of Gucci despite the significantly smaller release footprint of 600-plus locations for Onion versus 3,477 for Gucci.
With many asterisks in mind, there is a significant chance Glass Onion could generate more opening weekend ticket sales than the other live-action releases slated for November 23.
- Strange World is Disney’s latest original animated film bowing over the Thanksgiving corridor. The lack of direct competition or any major animation releases since summer could result in pent-up family demand over the holiday.
CONS:
- Early social sentiment trends for Devotion are mixed with advertising leaning heavily on drama rather than spectacle, which could be a tough sell in a competitive market that will still be overshadowed by Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s third frame.
- The Fabelmans represents a prestige title going into wide release after platform openings on November 11, a breed of theatrical content that remains the slowest to fully recover in the post-COVID marketspace.
- Glass Onion marks Netflix’s first major foray into nationwide theatrical distribution upon their agreements with AMC, Regal, and Cinemark. Forecasts are highly volatile given the nascent nature of marketing expectations for this type of release, as well as the impact a one-week engagement before a one-month blackout before its streaming release may have on upfront demand.
To note, Netflix has thus far committed to not reporting official box office figures on Glass Onion.
- Strange World has yet to click in long range modeling with sentiment and interest comparisons leaning closer to Encanto and other low-to-middling animation performers than Disney’s past smash hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Moana, Frozen, et al. Any potential (or expected) streaming release on Disney+ during the holiday season could be a factor to watch for as well.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/28/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/4/2022 | Armageddon Time (Wide Exp; 7 locations on Oct. 28) | 800 | Focus Features | ||||
| 11/4/2022 | One Piece Film Red | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $19,250,000 – $32,000,000 | Crunchyroll / Sony | |||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | $180,000,000 – $210,000,000 | $445,000,000 – $555,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 11/11/2022 | Spirited | Apple Original Films | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 | Fathom Events | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Menu | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 11/23/2022 | Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18) | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Devotion | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $17,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion; LA/NY Nov. 11) | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 11/23/2022 | Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery | $6,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 (7-Day Engagement) | 600 | Netflix | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $68,000,000 – $103,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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