Long Range Box Office Forecast: Don’t Worry Darling and the Re-Issue of Avatar

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. Pictures & Matthew Libatique ("Don't Worry Darling"); 20th Century Studios / Disney ("Avatar")

After an historically slow start to September, the middle-to-later portions finally bring small rays of positive news back to exhibition with a slow-but-steady increase in new content.

This week, September 23’s key openers join the latest forecast table below. Warner Bros. will provide a true new release in the form of Don’t Worry Darling, while James Cameron’s Avatar will receive a nationwide re-release in advance of the anticipated sequel’s launch in December.

PROS:

  • Don’t Worry Darling will offer up the first somewhat significant piece of new, adult-driven content for moviegoers since late summer. Its combination of fair star power from Florence Pugh, Harry Styles, Chris Pine, and co-star/director Olivia Wilde will aid in appeal, primarily among women over 25.
  • Avatar, once the highest grossing film in domestic history, is returning to the pop culture conversation with its coming sequel having been advertised in theaters all summer. A claim on IMAX and many PLF screens as part of this re-issue’s nationwide two-week engagement should bring out fans and those who may be too young to have seen the film in a theatrical setting during its initial 2009-2010 run.

CONS:

  • While trailer reactions for Don’t Worry Darling have praised the film’s aesthetics and cast, social sentiment around its psychological thriller story appeal remains difficult to assess. Reviews and word of mouth will be crucial, even in a dry market, for this original film with no built-in audience. Should The Woman King take off one week before, that could also cut into this film’s wheelhouse.
  • Some in the social media sphere have questioned Avatar‘s remaining cultural impact nearly 13 years after release and the decay of 3D’s popularity since. James Cameron is looking to remind the world of how much impact the film had and still has on its fans.

    This is certainly going to be a test of anticipation for The Way of Water before it opens at the end of the year. Forecasts are also volatile until location counts for opening weekend become more clear.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/25/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. $1,500,000 – $3,500,000   $3,500,000 – $8,500,000   Focus Features
9/2/2022 Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release) $1,500,000 – $3,000,000       Universal Pictures
9/2/2022 Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-Issue)         Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios
9/9/2022 Barbarian $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $22,000,000 – $37,000,000   20th Century Studios
9/9/2022 Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva         Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022 God’s Country         IFC Films
9/16/2022 Running the Bases         UP2U Films
9/16/2022 See How They Run         Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022 The Silent Twins         Focus Features
9/16/2022 The Woman King $16,000,000 – $21,000,000   $42,000,000 – $67,000,000   Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Avatar (2022 Re-Release) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000   $20,000,000 – $50,000,000   Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $50,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.