This week’s early tracking report welcomes the addition of Lionsgate’s spring tentpole led by Keanu Reeves. Updated tracking ranges for other upcoming films are available in the table below.
John Wick: Chapter 4
Lionsgate
March 24, 2023
PROS:
- Early forecasting models are well ahead of last summer’s Bullet Train ($30 million), while comparable to those of Halloween Kills ($49.4 million) and Nope ($44.4 million) — the two highest grossing R-rated debuts post-pandemic so far.
- The franchise has improved at the box office with each installment, thus far peaking at a $56.8 million domestic debut and $171 million finish in 2019.
- Male-driven action films continue to be robust at the box office in the post-pandemic era, and a full compliment of premium screens (including IMAX) should capitalize on that appeal again.
- Buzz for the expanding universe of the John Wick IP continues to drive interest in the brand overall, which is being expanded to include an upcoming Ballerina spin-off led by Ana de Armas.
CONS:
- Typically, franchises of various genres peak at the box office around the second or third entry. That’s not a hard and fast rule, but the Wick series is at least now at the age where cautionary considerations about diminishing returns should be in mind.
- The above factor is compounded by the fact that Chapter 4 opens in the middle of a month crowded by other male-driven films, putting even more importance on how word of mouth affects them all (Wick included).
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/24/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 3/3/2023 | Creed III | $29,000,000 – $36,000,000 | +5% | $75,000,000 – $105,000,000 | +5% | MGM |
| 3/3/2023 | Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | -12% | $10,000,000 – $21,000,000 | -12% | Crunchyroll / Sony |
| 3/3/2023 | Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre | $2,000,000+ | NEW | $5,000,000+ | NEW | Lionsgate |
| 3/10/2023 | 65 | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $26,000,000 – $47,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 3/10/2023 | Champions | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $44,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 3/10/2023 | Scream VI | $32,000,000 – $41,000,000 | +6% | $72,000,000 – $97,000,000 | +6% | Paramount Pictures |
| 3/17/2023 | Inside | Focus Features | ||||
| 3/17/2023 | Moving On | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 3/17/2023 | Shazam! Fury of the Gods | $35,000,000 – $44,000,000 | -17% | $82,000,000 – $115,000,000 | -17% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/24/2023 | John Wick: Chapter 4 | $44,000,000 – $53,000,000 | $122,000,000 – $155,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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