Long Range Box Office Forecast: Jordan Peele’s Nope

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures ("Nope")

After two runaway box office hits in 2017 and 2019, writer/director Jordan Peele returns to the big screen with his first summertime release next month in the form of Nope.

As always, current tracking ranges for that film and preceding releases are in the chart below.

Nope
Universal Pictures
July 22, 2022

PROS:

  • After solidifying his comedic persona and popularity in the early-to-mid 2010s, Jordan Peele shot to immediate filmmaker acclaim with the breakout run of Get Out five years ago, which opened to $33.4 million stateside and legged out to $176 million. The film scored Peele an Oscar for Original Screenplay that year. That success helped make him an immediate draw among horror fans, helping 2019’s Us become the biggest original horror opener in history at $71.1 million.

    Among pandemic era releases, Nope is preliminarily tracking in the vicinity of Halloween Kills ($49.4 million) and A Quiet Place Part II ($47.6 million) — the top horror openers post-2019 so far.
  • Nope has generated steady online enthusiasm over the course of its early marketing stages, drawing sentiments and trailer views comparable to Us at the same point before release.
  • Peele’s films have played to a diverse audience thus far, with Us registering a 50-50 split among men and women and 53% over the age of 25 on opening weekend, plus a 30 percent Black and 21 percent Latinx audience. Get Out was also evenly split gender-wise and 51 percent over age 25, plus 39 percent Black and 17 percent Latinx.
  • As an original film with major studio tentpole-level marketing, plus an IMAX release in store, the film could stand out for moviegoers looking for something outside the superhero or franchise realm during the second half of summer.

CONS:

  • Pre-sales began very early (six weeks ahead of release), so those are expectedly soft and not yet a reliable component in comprehensive tracking models. Horror films — particularly original, non-IP titles from the genre — rarely generate major upfront sales, especially with such a long-lead window as other high-profile films simultaneously claim audience attention before Nope releases.
  • Us contrasted the run of Get Out as the former proved more divisive, ultimately earning a front-loaded $175.1 million (almost identical to Get Out‘s $176 million finish) despite a much larger opening weekend. As such, word of mouth will be important for a film like Nope which is still mostly shrouded in mystery throughout its marketing.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/23/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru $65,000,000 – $77,000,000   $195,000,000 – $260,000,000   Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder $145,000,000 – $190,000,000 -4% $327,000,000 – $459,000,000 -4% Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $28,000,000 – $45,000,000   Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing $17,000,000 – $26,000,000   $48,000,000 – $85,000,000   Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope $45,000,000 – $65,000,000   $110,000,000 – $190,000,000   Universal Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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