This week’s report takes an early glance at February’s second frame, now also known as Super Bowl weekend. Warner Bros. and Paramount are smartly counter-programming the sporting event.
Magic Mike’s Last Dance
Warner Bros. Pictures
February 10, 2023
PROS:
- Channing Tatum’s reliability as a box office draw was on display early in 2022 via the success of Dog and The Lost City, even at a time when adult women remained cautious to return to cinemas coming out of the winter Omicron variant wave.
- Early tracking trends are encouraging with trailer views and social sentiment highlighting excitement for a trilogy-capper, Tatum’s return, and the addition of Salma Hayek in a lead role.
- The Magic Mike franchise has been among Tatum’s career box office highlights, drawing more than $179 million domestically ($286 million globally) between the 2012 and 2015 films combined.
- Even with a depressed Sunday market due to the Super Bowl, female-driven films often evade some of the sharper box office dips at this time on the calendar. Especially with Valentine’s Day landing the following Tuesday, Last Dance is a strong “women’s night out” candidate.
CONS:
- Nearly eight years have passed since the previous Magic Mike entry, a sequel that dipped 42 percent from its predecessor’s domestic run. Natural diminishing returns combined with some vaporization of zeitgeist status for the brand wouldn’t be surprising to see.
Titanic (25th Anniversary)
Paramount Pictures
February 10, 2023
PROS:
- It goes without saying that one of the most beloved and successful films in history will draw some appeal in another theatrical re-issue, this time remastered in 4K and also timed for Valentine’s Day.
- The 2012 re-release spotted $57.9 million domestically, 77 percent of which was earned through its first two weekends.
- Again, strong appeal to women of various ages is the countermove against the big game on Sunday. Preliminary models are comparable to Disney and James Cameron’s re-release of Avatar last September.
CONS:
- It remains to be seen how extensive the re-issue’s premium screen footprint will be since Cameron’s current blockbuster, Avatar: The Way of Water, will still be legging out in early February. Moreover, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will soak up the market air in Titanic‘s second frame.
- Initial marketing has only just begun, so forecasting models are in some state of flux until Paramount’s release strategy is more clearly defined.
- Audience crossover with Magic Mike’s Last Dance could be a factor to watch for.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/13/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/20/2023 | Missing | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | -40% | $7,500,000 – $21,000,000 | -40% | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 1/20/2023 | The Son | Sony Pictures Classics | ||||
| 1/20/2023 | That Time I Got Reincarcerated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||||
| 1/22/2023 | The Wandering Earth 2 | Well Go USA | ||||
| 1/25/2023 | Pathaan | Yash Raj Films | ||||
| 1/27/2023 | Distant | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 1/27/2023 | Fear | Hidden Empire Film Group | ||||
| 2/1/2023 | BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas | Trafalgar Releasing | ||||
| 2/3/2023 | 80 for Brady | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $17,000,000 – $38,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 2/3/2023 | The Amazing Maurice | Viva Pictures | ||||
| 2/3/2023 | Knock at the Cabin | $18,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $44,000,000 – $81,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 2/3/2023 | Untitled Crunchyroll Film | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||||
| 2/10/2023 | Magic Mike’s Last Dance | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 2/10/2023 | Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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