2023’s holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels, hitting the big screen.
Disney / Marvel Studios
November 10, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $50M-$75M
Domestic Total Range: $121M-$189M
- Brie Larson’s Captain Marvel was introduced in highly successful and timely fashion back in 2018 and 2019, as her character was teased at the end of Avengers: Infinity War in advance of her solo debut, which benefited from coming out less than two months before the massively anticipated Avengers: Endgame. Captain Marvel would garner a $153.4 million opening and go on to earn $426.8 million domestically.
- With few significant, all-audience-friendly tentpoles on the calendar this fall and early holiday season—not to mention a dry spell for wide releases in general in early November—audiences could be feeling some pent-up demand for popcorn entertainment.
- The promise of Larson teaming up with other MCU characters from the sprawling universe’s streaming series “Ms. Marvel” (Iman Vellani) and “WandaVision” (Teynoah Parris’ Monica Rambeau), alongside Samuel L. Jackson’s return as Nick Fury on the heels of this year’s “Secret Invasion,” could be attractive for fans of the franchise’s Disney+ offerings. Mothers and daughters, in particular, could provide a disproportionately large audience segment for Captain Marvel, which looks to have the most diverse female cast yet for a Marvel film.
- Debuting over Veterans Day weekend could create some backloading for the film, as the Saturday holiday will be observed on Friday.
- The Marvel Studios brand has hit several bumps in the road of late. Despite Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 generating strong legs last summer, its initial $118.4 million debut was seen as something of a low-end performance for a well-established and beloved sub-franchise. The franchise is, quite simply, miles away from the zeitgeist-capturing interest and enormous goodwill that for a time helped every film achieve automatic blockbuster status–like Captain Marvel did over four years ago.
- The Guardians result came in the wake of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania dividing many fans and barely doubling its domestic debut with a $214.5 million final tally. The reputation of that film, combined with fans’ highly divisive reception toward most of the franchise’s Disney+ streaming series, has served to lessen interest among casual fans struggling to keep up with the various plot threads in what many feel has become a disjointed post-Endgame MCU.
- Social media traction for The Marvels has been noticeably weak in recent months, compounded by concerns that the ongoing SAG-AFTRA labor strike may not resolve in time for Brie Larson and cast to promote the film. Their absence on the media circuit would be a major blow in Disney’s efforts to pitch the film as a fun escapist experience, leaning into its organic “girl power” marketing message to bring out underserved female audiences.
- November competition may be notable with The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and, more prominently, Disney’s own Wish slated to open in Marvels‘ second and third weekends, respectively.
- Bearing out all of these concerns, initial pre-sales are alarmingly low for a Marvel Studios film. Trends are currently 69 percent behind the pace of Guardians Vol. 3, 72 percent behind Quantumania, and 42 percent behind Eternals.
- It’s highly possible that initial demand is overshadowed by this weekend’s release of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, giving Marvels a chance to pick up the pace closer to release if advance reviews are strong. Still, initial models leave a lot of ground to make up relative to recent MCU films.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/12/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|10/20/2023||Killers of the Flower Moon||$33,000,000 – $42,000,000||+11%||$110,000,000 – $156,000,000||+8%||Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios|
|10/20/2023||Soul Mates||Faith Media Distribution|
|10/27/2023||After Death||Angel Studios|
|10/27/2023||Five Nights at Freddy’s||$41,000,000 – $60,000,000||+13%||$76,000,000 – $129,000,000||+13%||Universal Pictures / Blumhouse|
|10/27/2023||Inspector Sun||Viva Pictures|
|11/3/2023||The Marsh King’s Daughter||STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions|
|11/3/2023||Priscilla||$3,000,000 – $8,000,000||$10,000,000 – $27,000,000||A24|
|11/3/2023||What Happens Later||Bleecker Street|
|11/10/2023||The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)||Focus Features|
|11/10/2023||The Marvels||$50,000,000 – $75,000,000||$121,000,000 – $189,000,000||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/10/2023||Journey to Bethlehem||TBD||TBD||Sony / AFFIRM Films|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.