Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Woman King

Photo Credits: Sony / TriStar ("The Woman King')

After a month of scratching and clawing for new, major studio content, mid-to-late September will bring exhibitors some initial light down the tunnel with the release of Sony’s The Woman King.

Below are initial factors driving preliminary forecasts for that title, as well as other minor updates to the interim calendar.

PROS:

  • The Woman King has drawn positive buzz from early trailers that position Viola Davis in a role that could appeal to a variety of adult demographics. A lack of new releases leading up to release should help the film thrive in early fall if reviews and word of mouth deliver, as might any potential award season heat.
  • Disney recently announced that Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will be re-released at approximately 150 IMAX venues on August 26 in a lead-up to the studio’s Andor series debuting next month on Disney+. While just the tip of the iceberg, this is an encouraging example of what studios can offer theaters in terms of re-issues both in the short- and long-term for special format screens.

CONS:

  • Early fall dramas are dependent on their crowd-pleasing abilities, something that will be key to watch for with The Woman King regardless of the empty market it has at its advantage. Pre-pandemic examples of similarly positioned films with prestige stars that didn’t quite perform up to expectations include the likes of 2019’s Ad Astra and Gemini Man.
  • Pre-sales for The Invitation have only just begun, but in the interest of erring on the side of caution, models have been slightly adjusted downward for the PG-13 horror due for release in one week.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/18/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/26/2022 The Invitation $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 -14% $17,000,000 – $32,000,000 -16% 3,000 Sony Pictures / Columbia
               
8/26/2022 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (IMAX Re-Release) $500,000 – $1,000,000 NEW $750,000 – $1,500,000 NEW 150 Disney / Lucasfilm
8/26/2022 Three Thousand Years of Longing         2,500 United Artists Releasing & MGM
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.           Focus Features
9/2/2022 Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)           Universal Pictures
9/2/2022 Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Version           Sony Pictures / Columbia / Marvel Studios
9/9/2022 Barbarian $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $22,000,000 – $37,000,000     20th Century Studios
9/9/2022 Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva           Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022 God’s Country           IFC Films
9/16/2022 Running the Bases           UP2U Films
9/16/2022 See How They Run           Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022 The Silent Twins           Focus Features
9/16/2022 The Woman King $16,000,000 – $21,000,000   $42,000,000 – $67,000,000     Sony / TriStar Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.