After a month of scratching and clawing for new, major studio content, mid-to-late September will bring exhibitors some initial light down the tunnel with the release of Sony’s The Woman King.
Below are initial factors driving preliminary forecasts for that title, as well as other minor updates to the interim calendar.
PROS:
- The Woman King has drawn positive buzz from early trailers that position Viola Davis in a role that could appeal to a variety of adult demographics. A lack of new releases leading up to release should help the film thrive in early fall if reviews and word of mouth deliver, as might any potential award season heat.
- Disney recently announced that Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will be re-released at approximately 150 IMAX venues on August 26 in a lead-up to the studio’s Andor series debuting next month on Disney+. While just the tip of the iceberg, this is an encouraging example of what studios can offer theaters in terms of re-issues both in the short- and long-term for special format screens.
CONS:
- Early fall dramas are dependent on their crowd-pleasing abilities, something that will be key to watch for with The Woman King regardless of the empty market it has at its advantage. Pre-pandemic examples of similarly positioned films with prestige stars that didn’t quite perform up to expectations include the likes of 2019’s Ad Astra and Gemini Man.
- Pre-sales for The Invitation have only just begun, but in the interest of erring on the side of caution, models have been slightly adjusted downward for the PG-13 horror due for release in one week.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/18/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 8/26/2022 | The Invitation | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | -14% | $17,000,000 – $32,000,000 | -16% | 3,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
| 8/26/2022 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (IMAX Re-Release) | $500,000 – $1,000,000 | NEW | $750,000 – $1,500,000 | NEW | 150 | Disney / Lucasfilm |
| 8/26/2022 | Three Thousand Years of Longing | 2,500 | United Artists Releasing & MGM | ||||
| 9/2/2022 | Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. | Focus Features | |||||
| 9/2/2022 | Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release) | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 9/2/2022 | Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Version | Sony Pictures / Columbia / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 9/9/2022 | Barbarian | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $37,000,000 | 20th Century Studios | |||
| 9/9/2022 | Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva | Disney / Fox Star | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | God’s Country | IFC Films | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Running the Bases | UP2U Films | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | See How They Run | Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Silent Twins | Focus Features | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $67,000,000 | Sony / TriStar Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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