Long Range Forecast: ‘Beauty and the Beast,’ ‘The Belko Experiment,’ & ‘Free Fire’

This week, we’re slightly revamping our Long Range Forecast. Notably, the usual chart (found below) will now feature week-to-week percentage drops to more clearly track changes we’ve made on individual film forecasts. Estimated location counts will also be included for confirmed wide releases two weeks out.

All numbers are inclusive of various metrics ranging from traditional industry tracking to social media buzz, among others. As we continue aiming to improve this weekly feature, please feel free to share your feedback in the comments section below.

Moving on…

This week’s update sees the addition of Disney’s next hugely anticipated live-action remake: Beauty and the Beast. After what already looks to be a promising first half of the month, the weekend of March 17 is pacing to be another big one as massive interest is driving the film across a variety of moviegoers. Record trailer views, appeal to a multi-generational audience, an impressive and effective marketing campaign, and a wide open springtime market further contribute to the expectation that this could be another mammoth performer for Disney.

Not to be forgotten are A24’s Free Fire and High Top Releasing’s The Belko Experiment. Box office expectations are decidedly more modest for those two low-budget titles as they aim to counter-program the weekend’s marquee release. Early positive reviews are currently driving our confidence in Free Fire, although The Belko Experiment has received somewhat more of a marketing push thus far. It’s likely that one will cut into the other’s  similar target audience, but we’re also not ruling out a change in release strategy from either of the film’s indie distributors.

Also of note: a late addition to the release schedule — Open Road’s Collide — has been added to the forecast. Currently set to open February 24, our expectations are modest for now as it debuts after the lucrative Presidents Day weekend.

As always, these and other films in the forecast will be monitored and adjusted accordingly leading up to their respective releases.

Check out our complete 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/27/2017 A Dog’s Purpose $14,000,000 -28% $44,000,000 -43% 3,000 Universal
1/27/2017 Gold $5,000,000 $13,000,000 2,200 TWC / Dimension
1/27/2017 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter $18,000,000 -10% $39,000,000 -9% 3,000 Sony / Screen Gems
2/3/2017 Rings (2017) $14,000,000 $29,000,000 3,000 Paramount
2/3/2017 The Space Between Us $4,000,000 $11,000,000 1,800 STX Entertainment
2/10/2017 Fifty Shades Darker $41,000,000 $83,000,000 Universal
2/10/2017 John Wick: Chapter 2 $22,500,000 13% $50,500,000 12% Lionsgate / Summit
2/10/2017 The LEGO Batman Movie $56,000,000 $210,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/17/2017 A Cure for Wellness $12,000,000 $35,000,000 Fox
2/17/2017 Fist Fight $22,000,000 $63,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
2/17/2017 The Great Wall $30,000,000 $68,000,000 Universal
2/24/2017 Collide $5,000,000 NEW $11,000,000 NEW Open Road
2/24/2017 Get Out $20,000,000 $56,000,000 Universal
2/24/2017 Rock Dog $3,000,000 $8,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit Premiere
3/3/2017 Before I Fall $7,000,000 $18,000,000 Open Road
3/3/2017 LEAP! $6,500,000 $20,000,000 The Weinstein Company
3/3/2017 Logan $81,000,000 $205,000,000 Fox
3/3/2017 The Shack $9,500,000 $34,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
3/10/2017 Kong: Skull Island $35,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/10/2017 Trainspotting 2 n/a n/a Sony / TriStar
3/10/2017 The Wall $7,000,000 $25,000,000 Roadside Attractions / Amazon Studios
3/17/2017 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $144,000,000 NEW $470,000,000 NEW Disney
3/17/2017 The Belko Experiment $4,000,000 NEW $9,000,000 NEW High Top Releasing
3/17/2017 Free Fire $5,500,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW A24

Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

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