This week’s report focuses on the first spin-off in the Fast & Furious franchise, currently set for release on Friday, August 2.
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 115 million
PROS:
- Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham’s characters have become some of the most popular additions to the Fast & Furious franchise over the past few installments, with Johnson’s involvement widely credited for helping to revive the series after his introduction in 2011’s Fast Five. His stardom has only increased since then, starring in ten films that have earned more than $100 million at the domestic box office since 2011.
- Late summer has proven very friendly to male-driven action franchises, ranging from the Expendables series, to Star Trek Beyond and Jason Bourne in 2016, and the last two Mission: Impossible films. This franchise’s more balanced appeal to young and adult audiences is notable.
- Another benefit for Hobbs & Shaw may be the franchise’s diverse audience. In addition to 41 percent Caucasian, Fate of the Furious‘s $98.8 million opening in 2017 was comprised of 26 percent Latinx, 19 percent African-American, and 11 percent Asian moviegoers.
- Last year’s runaway success of The Meg also underscores the appeal of Jason Statham starring in high-concept action films with a sense of humor. With the addition of Idris Elba and Vanessa Kirby, the strong ensemble cast should balance appeal to both men and women.
- To date, the franchise has enjoyed its highest level of success with the most recent five films — averaging $100.1 million per opening weekend since 2009’s Fast & Furious revival.
- The top two August debuts ever have occurred in the past five years — Suicide Squad‘s $133.7 million in 2016 and Guardians of the Galaxy‘s $94.3 million. The next two highest were 2007’s Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3 million) and 2001’s Rush Hour 2 ($67.4 million). The latter could be a particularly relevant comp as a fellow comedic two-hander action pic, and it’s inflation-adjusted opening would be over $108 million with 2019 ticket prices.
- As the last tentpole release of summer, positive word of mouth could help the film leg out a strong domestic and global haul even after what should be a strong debut.
CONS:
- Opening one weekend after Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood could lead to some audience crossover as both films will appeal to adult male audiences. The more audience friendly PG-13 rating of Hobbs & Shaw might negate much of that impact, though.
- The franchise has met some criticism from fans after The Fate of the Furious, which many felt leaned too hard into over-the-top set pieces. Since that section of the franchise has been built around family drama, though, it’s possible this spin-off’s embrace of comedy and action will be greeted more warmly given its clear intent to be a lighter, fresher take on the franchise.
- Despite the star power of Johnson and Statham, some fans of the franchise may be less interested in this spin-off without the full Furious family on board.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 6/14/2019 | Men In Black International | $39,000,000 | -5% | $107,000,000 | -5% | 3,800 | Sony / Columbia |
| 6/14/2019 | Shaft (2019) | $23,000,000 | -4% | $66,000,000 | -4% | 2,900 | Warner Bros. |
| 6/21/2019 | Anna | $5,000,000 | -17% | $14,200,000 | -17% | 2,000 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 6/21/2019 | Child’s Play (2019) | $18,000,000 | $42,500,000 | 3,000 | Orion Pictures | ||
| 6/21/2019 | Toy Story 4 | $151,000,000 | $495,000,000 | 4,400 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 6/26/2019 | Annabelle Comes Home | $31,000,000 | $101,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 6/28/2019 | Yesterday | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 7/2/2019 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | $120,000,000 | $405,000,000 | Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios | |||
| 7/3/2019 | Midsommar | n/a | n/a | A24 | |||
| 7/12/2019 | Crawl | $18,000,000 | $47,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 7/12/2019 | Stuber | $17,500,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 7/19/2019 | The Lion King (2019) | $201,000,000 | $650,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 7/26/2019 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | n/a | n/a | STX | |||
| 7/26/2019 | Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood | $50,000,000 | $165,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/2/2019 | Hobbs & Shaw | $100,000,000 | $245,000,000 | Universal |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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