Long Range Forecast — May 15, 2026
In the Grey | Black Bear
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4M – $7M
A Guy Ritchie heist flick coming at the beginning of Q2, we expect solid counterprogramming figures form this one. Our $4M – $7M opening weekend domestic range puts In the Grey roughly in line, including March 2023’s Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre ($3.1M domestic opening) on the low end and, on the high end, May 2021’s Wrath of Man ($8.3M) and 2024’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($8.9M), the latter co-starring In the Grey‘s Henry Cavill. An additional comp is director Michael Bay’s April 2022 heist actioner Ambulance ($8.6M), co-starring In the Grey‘s Jake Gyllenhaal.
Long Range Forecast — May 15, 2026
Is God Is | Amazon MGM
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4M – $8M
Sisters Anaia (Mallori Johnson) and Racine (Kara Young) are tasked by their dying mother (Vivica A. Fox) to hunt down and kill their sadistic father (Sterling K. Brown) in Is God Is, from first-time feature director Aleshea Harris. A stand-out from Amazon MGM’s CinemaCon 2025 presentation, the road trip revenge thriller could have breakthrough potential with the right marketing campaign and release pattern. Other May thrillers include 2019’s The Intruder ($10.8M domestic opening), Ma ($18M), and Breaking In ($17.6M).
Long Range Forecast — May 15, 2026
Obsession | Focus Features
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4M – $6M
Helmed by first-time director Curry Barker, TIFF pickup Obsession has been picking up online buzz among horror fans, though the lack of recognizable names among the cast will likely limit the film’s box office potential. Other recent horror releases from first-time directors include Parker Finn’s Smile ($22.6M), Zach Cregger’s Barbarian ($10.5M), Zelda Williams’ Lisa Frankenstein ($3.6M), and Danny and Michael Philippou’s Talk to Me ($10.4M).
Tracking Updates [As Of 4/18/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 4/17 | Lee Cronin’s The Mummy | $15M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 4/17 (ltd), 4/24 (wide) | Mother Mary | $2M – $4M | A24 |
| 4/24 | Michael | $65M – $80M | Lionsgate |
| 5/1 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 | $85M – $100M | 20th Century Studios |
| 5/1 | Animal Farm | $5M – $7M | Angel Studios |
| 5/1 | Hokum | $3M – $5M | Neon |
| 5/8 | The Sheep Detectives | $10M – $20M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/8 | Mortal Kombat II | $50M – $60M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/15 | In the Grey | $4M – $7M | Black Bear |
| 5/15 | Is God Is | $4M – $8M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/15 | Obsession | $4M – $6M | Focus Features |
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