Long Range Forecast: Jumanji: The Next Level, Black Christmas, and Richard Jewell

This week’s report takes a first look at December’s first tentpole release and two counter-programmers timed to get a jump on the Christmas and New Year’s market.

Jumanji: The Next Level
Opening Weekend Range: $66 – 76 million

PROS:

• The previous film, Welcome to the Jungle, took the box office by storm with its $404 million domestic / $962 million global run two years ago, proving to be one of the leggiest (and most unexpected) blockbuster phenomenons in recent memory.
  
  
• With the principal cast returning — along with a few new faces — and the promise of more comedy-driven adventure, family appeal should again be very strong. Without a specific fan base, some back-loading (though not as much as the first film) should be expected as said families make plans for the extended holiday corridor closer to the end of the month (not to mention the following week’s Star Wars release).
  
  
• Although Frozen II debuts three weeks earlier, this represents the first live-action release of the holiday season with strong appeal to all four quadrants.

CONS:

• It’ll be challenging to duplicate the surprise run of 2017’s predecessor, in large part because that film had a fresh hook and was able to capitalize on the mixed reception of Star Wars: The Last Jedi at the time. Once again facing a Star Wars blockbuster, The Rise of Skywalker, this time around will likely split some of that family audience if that film inspires stronger word of mouth — not to mention contending with potential staying power from Frozen II. Early social media buzz is healthy overall, although cautious on some level given the adoption of the same body-switch hook as the previous film.
  
  
• Comparison-wise, similar breakout franchises like Night at the Museum, The Chronicles of Narnia, The Hobbit, and Jurassic World saw sharp drops in box office returns with their second installments (although this is “officially” the third Jumanji film). In that same breath, The Next Level still looks poised to be a major financial success and should best the 1995 original’s inflation-adjusted domestic gross of $210 million ($100.5 million originally).

Black Christmas
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

• This latest remake of the 1974 cult classic should attract slasher fans, especially given its “Friday the 13th” release date which has proven to be a boon for horror fan turnouts at cinemas.
  
  
• Universal’s backing and marketing arm should be a strength here in a similar way as it was for Krampus in 2015, particularly given another obvious holiday tie-in.

CONS:

• Broad audience appeal could be challenging given the proximity to a number of tentpoles and the potential staying power of early November’s Doctor Sleep. Still, this isn’t a film that needs to become a blockbuster to become a hit.

Richard Jewell
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

• The first trailer has generated encouraging buzz since debuting last month, suggesting this could be another crowd-pleaser with a long holiday corridor to take advantage of.
  
  
• Clint Eastwood’s directorial presence along with a prominent ensemble cast and an underdog story should combine to help this film attract audiences in both major cities and often undervalued middle America areas.

CONS:

• Proximity to other award season candidates might stifle some of the full potential here, but in general, most should be able to coexist.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/25/2019	Black and Blue	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$7,500,000	-12%	$20,000,000	-13%	2,000	Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019	Countdown	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$10,000,000	-17%	$23,000,000	-18%	2,600	STX
10/25/2019	The Current War: Director’s Cut	n/a	n/a		n/a		n/a	101 Studios
11/1/2019	Arctic Dogs	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$6,000,000		$22,000,000	-10%	2,500	Entertainment Studios
11/1/2019	Harriet	n/a	n/a		n/a		n/a	Focus Features
11/1/2019	Motherless Brooklyn	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$7,000,000		$24,000,000		2,800	Warner Bros.
11/1/2019	Terminator: Dark Fate	$36,000,000 – $46,000,000	$38,000,000	-5%	$89,500,000		3,900	Paramount
11/8/2019	Doctor Sleep	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$25,000,000		$92,000,000			Warner Bros.
11/8/2019	Last Christmas	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	$15,000,000		$80,000,000			Universal
11/8/2019	Midway	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000		$47,000,000			Lionsgate
11/8/2019	Playing with Fire	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000		$33,000,000			Paramount
11/15/2019	Charlie’s Angels (2019)	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$28,000,000	-3%	$78,000,000			Sony / Columbia
11/15/2019	The Good Liar	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	n/a		n/a			Warner Bros.
11/15/2019	Ford v. Ferrari	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$32,000,000		$115,000,000			Fox
11/22/2019	21 Bridges	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$10,000,000		$32,000,000	-6%		STX
11/22/2019	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000	$19,000,000		$105,000,000			Sony / Columbia
11/22/2019	Frozen 2	$115,000,000 – $145,000,000	$125,000,000		$450,000,000			Disney
11/27/2019	Knives Out	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$17,500,000		$70,000,000			Lionsgate
11/27/2019	Queen & Slim	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000		$30,000,000			Universal
11/29/2019	Dark Waters (Expansion)	n/a	n/a		n/a			Focus Features
12/6/2019	PLAYMOBIL: The Movie	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	n/a		n/a			STX
12/13/2019	Black Christmas	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW	$32,000,000	NEW		Universal
12/13/2019	Jumanji: The Next Level	$66,000,000 – $76,000,000	$70,000,000	NEW	$265,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia
12/13/2019	Richard Jewell	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$11,000,000	NEW	$70,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report