Long Range Forecast: Knives Out and Queen & Slim

This week’s update welcomes the addition of two wide releases currently slated to debut on Wednesday, November 27 as part of the extended Thanksgiving weekend in the domestic market.

Knives Out
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

  • Boasting an impressive ensemble cast led by Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Michael Shannon, Ana de Armas, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, Lakeith Stanfield, and more, the collective star power of accomplished actors on display could be a strong attraction for a diverse range of adult audiences. The “whodunnit?” premise of the film is also one that helped the fellow ensemble-driven Murder on the Orient Express break out to a $102.8 million domestic run two years ago.

  • Rian Johnson is no stranger to successful original stories after his success with Looper, Brick, and several episodes of the iconic television series Breaking Bad. His return to original storytelling here is an encouraging element, especially given the film’s stellar 99 percent Rotten Tomatoes score following early industry screenings.

  • Early social media trends for the film’s trailers reveal notable enthusiasm for the film as a counter-programmer that could play well through the holiday season alongside Hollywood’s big franchise titles in December.

CONS:

  • Those strong early reviews highlight some less-than-subtle comparisons to current social and political goings-on, which could put off some moviegoers seeking escapism of a more neutral flavor.

  • Johnson, unfortunately, drew the social media ire of some Star Wars fans with his unique storytelling choices in The Last Jedi two years ago, although we expect any splash effect on this film to be minimal (or non-existent) given the significantly different target audience.

Queen & Slim
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

  • Daniel Kaluuya’s starring role is an early selling point following his breakout work in 2017’s Get Out, while Universal’s distribution and marketing could be major advantages for the kind of film that is generally given modest promotion from smaller/indie studios.

  • Potential award season contention could elevate this film’s lifespan at the box office, particularly as a counter-programmer not facing any direct genre competition upon release. Arthouse crowds are likely to be a strong driver.

CONS:

  • Recent performances by similar dramas like If Beale Street Could Talk and The Hate U Give have us leaning cautious for now. A strong award season push could elevate that outlook, though.

  • Although this offers a very different kind of film, adult audiences will already have several other high profile choices in the form of Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Knives Out, among other holdovers and late December releases.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $23,000,000 – $28,000,000 $25,000,000 9% $88,000,000   3,800 United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $26,000,000 – $31,000,000 $28,000,000   $85,000,000   3,500 Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000 -13% $17,000,000 -15% 2,300 Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 $40,000,000   $120,000,000   4,000 Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000   3,700 Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $11,000,000 -8% $32,000,000 -8%   Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $33,000,000     STX
10/25/2019 The Current War: Director’s Cut n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Arctic Dogs $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,000,000   $24,500,000     Entertainment Studios
11/1/2019 Harriet n/a n/a   n/a     Focus Features
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn n/a n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   $85,000,000     Paramount
11/8/2019 Doctor Sleep $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $25,000,000   $92,000,000     Warner Bros.
11/8/2019 Last Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $15,000,000   $80,000,000     Universal
11/8/2019 Midway $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $47,000,000     Lionsgate
11/8/2019 Playing with Fire $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000   $33,000,000     Paramount
11/15/2019 Charlie’s Angels (2019) $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $29,000,000   $78,000,000     Sony / Columbia
11/15/2019 The Good Liar n/a n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/15/2019 Ford v. Ferrari $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $32,000,000   $115,000,000     Fox
11/22/2019 21 Bridges $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $10,000,000   $34,000,000     STX
11/22/2019 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $19,000,000   $105,000,000     Sony / Columbia
11/22/2019 Frozen 2 $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 $125,000,000   $450,000,000     Disney
11/27/2019 Knives Out $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,500,000 NEW $70,000,000 NEW   Lionsgate
11/27/2019 Queen & Slim $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 NEW   Universal

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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