Long Range Forecast: ‘Kong: Skull Island,’ ‘The Wall’

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On March 10, will ‘Kong’ be king? Or will ‘The Wall’ set up a fortress around its competition? It’s a battle of two blockbusters as what looks to potentially be the highest-grossing March ever truly heats up.

Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

  • The blockbuster with an all-star ensemble cast of The Avengers‘ Tom Hiddleston, last year’s Oscar winner Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, and John Goodman follows a team of explorers fighting to survive against the legendary monster King Kong. Though more of an “origin story” than a remake, 2005’s King Kong earned a stellar $218.0 million, or about $290.7 million adjusted for inflation. This installment takes place in the same universe as 2014’s Godzilla, which earned an impressive $200.6 million, in anticipation of 2020’s hybrid Godzilla vs. Kong.

CONS:

  • The marketing and trailers are playing up the action and fight scenes at the expense of any emotion, unlike the 2005 version which was much more of a “story.” Not that a plethora of violence at the expense of good characters or story usually hurts Hollywood films, but in this case it could be seen as a step down. Also, the studio is taking a big risk on first-time director Jordan Vogt-Roberts, whose only previous film was 2013’s low-budget limited release The Kings of Summer. Can he deliver the goods here?

The Wall (Roadside Attractions)

PROS:

  • The story of an American military sniper in a high-stakes negotiation with a terrorist from behind a flimsy brick wall stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson and John Cena, the former of whom has been breaking out at the box office lately with 2014’s Godzilla and 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. Director Doug Liman has helmed such commercially successful thrillers as 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow with $100.2 million, 2005’s Mr. & Mrs. Smith with $186.3 million (about $250.2 million adjusted for inflation), and 2002’s The Bourne Identity with $121.6 million (about $180.2 million adjusted for inflation).

CONS:

  • The young male audience this title is aiming for will largely be lost to Kong: Skull Island and the previous weekend’s superhero holdover Logan. And some 2016’s military-themed films all did poorly at the box office: November’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk with $1.7 million despite playing in wide release, while 2016’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot only earned $23.0 million. (Although Hacksaw Ridge did well, but that was more of a historical film than a 21st century one.) Fans of military movies are probably more likely to wait until this summer’s highly-anticipated Dunkirk directed by Christopher Nolan.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below.

Title Wide Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Kong: Skull Island Fri, Mar 10 Warner Bros. $40,000,000 $100,000,000
The Wall Fri, Mar 10 Roadside Attractions $7,000,000 $25,000,000
Logan Fri, Mar 3 Fox $81,000,000 $205,000,000
The Shack Fri, Mar 3 Lionsgate $9,500,000 $34,000,000
Leap! Fri, Mar 3 Weinstein Company $6,500,000 $20,000,000
Before I Fall Fri, Mar 3 Focus Features $7,000,000 $18,000,000
Rock Dog Fri, Feb 24 Lionsgate $3,000,000 $8,000,000
Get Out Fri, Feb 24 Universal $20,000,000 $56,000,000
The Great Wall Fri, Feb 17 Universal $34,000,000* $68,000,000
Fist Fight Fri, Feb 17 Warner Bros. $25,000,000* $63,000,000
A Cure For Wellness Fri, Feb 17 Fox $13,500,000* $35,000,000
Patient Zero Fri, Feb 17 Sony / Columbia $8,500,000* $19,000,000
Fifty Shades Darker Fri, Feb 10 Universal $41,000,000 $83,000,000
The LEGO Batman Movie Fri, Feb 10 Warner Bros. $56,000,000 $210,000,000
John Wick: Chapter Two Fri, Feb 10 Lionsgate $20,000,000 $45,000,000
Rings Fri, Feb 3 Paramount $14,000,000 $29,000,000
The Space Between Us Fri, Feb 3 STX Entertainment $4,000,000 $11,000,000
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Fri, Jan 27 Sony / Screen Gems $20,000,000 $43,000,000
A Dog’s Purpose Fri, Jan 27 Universal $19,500,000 $77,000,000
Gold Fri, Jan 27 Weinstein Company $5,000,000 $13,000,000
xXx: The Return of Xander Gage Fri, Jan 20 Paramount $23,000,000 $55,000,000
Split Fri, Jan 20 Universal $22,500,000 $59,000,000
The Founder Fri, Jan 20 Weinstein $6,000,000 $19,000,000
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone Fri, Jan 20 High Top Releasing $1,400,000 $3,000,000

*= 4-day weekend, Friday-Monday, refers to Presidents Day in February.


Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.