Long Range Forecast — May 3, 2025
Lilo & Stitch | Disney
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $120M – $140M (3-Day); $135M – $165M (4-Day)
The latest Disney’s line of classic animation remakes, Lilo & Stitch doesn’t have the legacy of prior titles that have gone down this route—but, as seen from the underwhelming opening of Q1 release Disney’s Snow White, legacy isn’t everything. Released shortly after the Disney Renaissance of 1989-1999, the original Lilo & Stitch ($35.2M domestic opening, $145.7M domestic total) wasn’t a box office heavy-hitter the likes of the prior decade’s The Lion King ($312.8M domestic total) or Beauty and the Beast ($218.9M domestic total), but it’s built a solid audience on home video over the years—which, paired with positive marketing traction and great trailer view numbers in Q1, serve as positive signs for the Memorial Day release of its remake.
Three prior films in this series have opened over Memorial Day weekend: Alice Through the Looking Glass ($26.8M domestic three-day opening, $77M domestic total) in 2016, Aladdin ($91.5M domestic opening, $355.5M domestic total) in 2019, and The Little Mermaid ($95.5M domestic three-day opening, $298.1M domestic total) in 2023. If Lilo & Stitch manages to make $135M over the three-day weekend, it will have achieved the highest debut of the Disney remake series in the post-pandemic era, lagging behind only 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M domestic opening, $543.6M domestic total) and 2019’s The Lion King ($191.7M domestic opening, $543.6M domestic total).
Though this year’s Memorial Day weekend slate is a crowded one—with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Angel Studios’ The Last Rodeo opening and A24’s Friendship expanding into wide release—none of the other titles are in direct competition with Lilo; to the contrary, the array of genres on offer could serve as a boon to families looking to make a trip to the cinema over the long weekend. The holiday weekend’s titles could certainly benefit from the mega-success of April release Minecraft, which has gotten a multigenerational audience out to theaters and in front of marketing for upcoming releases. The abundance of counterprogramming options could very well make the Memorial Day holiday the first $200M weekend at the domestic box office so far this year.
Tracking Updates [as of May 2]
| 5/2 | Thunderbolts* | $80M – $90M | Disney |
| 5/9 | Clown in a Cornfield | $2M – $4M | IFC Films |
| 5/9 | Shadow Force | $2M – $4M | Lionsgate |
| 5/9 | Juliet & Romeo | $2M – $4M | Briarcliff Entertainmenet |
| 5/16 | Final Destination: Bloodlines | $40M – $50M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/16 | Hurry Up Tomorrow | $2M – $4M | Lionsgate |
| 5/23 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | $65M – $80M (3-day) $75M – $100M (4-day) | Paramount |
| 5/23 | Friendship (Wide Expansion) | $2M – $4M | A24 |
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