Long Range Forecast: March Moviegoers See Double with MICKEY 17

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Long Range Forecast — March 7, 2025

Mickey 17 | Warner Bros.

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M

The latest from Parasite director Bong Joon-ho, Mickey 17 finally makes its way to theaters in early March following a series of schedule adjustments; its initial theatrical release, in March 2024, was pushed back due to labor strikes, with Warner Bros. later dating the film in January, then April, then March 2025. Starring Robert Pattinson as an “Expendable”—a menial worker charged with dangerous assignments that are likely to kill him, after which he is cloned ad infinitum—its offbeat nature should appeal to fans of previous Bong Joon-ho outings, even if the wide appeal of his Oscar-winning Parasite ($393,216 domestic opening [3 theateres], $53.3M domestic total) will be hard to come by.

An opening in the $15M – $20M range would be by far the biggest of Bong Joon-ho’s career, during which his film’s North American distribution rights have bounced around between Magnolia (Memories of Murder, The Host, Mother), Radius-The Weinstein Company (Snowpiercer), Netflix (Okja), and Neon (Parasite) before landing at Warner Bros., which will doubtless give Mickey 17 a wider theatrical debut than any of the director’s previous films. As a dystopian sci-fi dark comedy movie based on a book and sporting a strong ensemble cast, Mickey 17 most resembles 2014’s Snowpiercer ($171,187 domestic opening [8 screens], $4.5M domestic total), which topped out at 356 theaters and thus is not particularly useful as a point of comparison in this case.

To a not-insubstantial degree Mickey 17‘s box office fate hinges on the reception of President’s Day weekend release Captain America: Brave New World, the only other adult-skewing tentpole hitting theaters in wide release in Q1. That film is tracking to open in the $80M – $95M range (3-day), which would be middle of the pack for Marvel; if it fails to inspire repeat viewings, Mickey 17 will be left with little by way of big-screen competition.

While a lack of competition doesn’t automatically translate to a significant boost in grosses, Warner Bros. does have experience releasing genre films in March to varied levels of financial success… even if most of those films hailed from franchises with well-established name recognition and fanbase support, and the one that didn’t (Ready Player One) was directed by Steven Spielberg. Mickey 17 may share a lead actor with The Batman, but without familiar source material expectations are much, much more muted.

Warner Bros. March Releases, 2015-2025