Long Range Forecast: Pixar Brings Their Latest Story to Theaters with ELIO

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Long Range Forecast — June 20, 2025

Elio | Disney/Pixar

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $45M

Now that Pixar has bounced back in the market with Inside Out 2, the next big test comes with the performance of this new original over their traditional mid-summer slot. Forecasting Elio‘s box office based on the performance of other Pixar films not based on pre-existing IP is complicated by the fact that three of the last seven titles in that category—2020’s Soul, 2021’s Luca, and 2022’s Turning Red—bypassed theaters in favor of a streaming debut on Disney+, and another (2020’s Onward) got only one week in theaters before Covid brought the domestic film industry to a screeching halt.

That leaves as points of comparison 2015’s The Good Dinosaur, 2017’s Coco, 2020’s Onward, and 2023’s Elemental as points of comparison from the last decade. Our opening weekend range puts Elio‘s opening in the neighborhood of the $39.1M grossed by Onward on its opening weekend, the only weekend it would have in theaters before Covid brought the industry to a screeching halt. (Onward got a second weekend in theaters—earning $10.6M, a drop of approximately 73 percent—but by that time much of the industry had already shut down.)

Elemental, the last decade’s only original-IP Disney/Pixar film with a June release date (The Good Dinosaur and Coco were both Thanksgiving releases), is also Pixar’s lowest domestic opener, coming in at $29.6M. Buoyed by strong holds, Elemental would make up some ground in chase weeks, eventually outgrossing both The Good Dinosaur ($39.1M three-day opening, $123M domestic total) and June 2022’s Lightyear ($50.7M domestic opening, $118.9M domestic total) with $154.4M domestic. Positive word-of-mouth for Elio, should it develop, could help make up for a potential soft opening, though it will have to compete with fellow animated family titles Smurfs (7/18, Paramount) and The Bad Guys 2 (8/1, Universal).

Looking outside Disney/Pixar, the only other original-IP animated June release from the last decade is (the barely marketed) Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken ($5.5M domestic opening, $15.7M domestic total.)

Tracking Updates [as of June 3]