Long Range Forecast — September 5, 2025
The Conjuring: Last Rites | Warner Bros.
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M
Blumhouse Production’s The Conjuring universe returns to theaters this September with Last Rites, purported to be the final installment in the franchise’s core series, which tracks the case history of supernatural experts Ed and Lorraine Warren. Last Rites‘ September release date marks a departure from the three previous (non-spinoff) Conjuring films, all of which came out in June. This shift away from a packed summer corridor could prove a smart move on behalf of Warner Bros., especially given the fate of two 2025 sequels that did come out in June—Lionsgate’s Ballerina: From the World of John Wick and Universal’s M3GAN 2.0—and debuted below expectations.
September also tends to be a strong month for horror films; the wider Conjuring universe had its biggest opening, The Nun’s $53.8M, on the first weekend of September 2018. The higher end of our predicted range has Last Rites opening with about the same amount, while a debut in the middle of the range would put the new film on par with 2013’s The Conjuring ($41.8M domestic opening) and 2016’s The Conjuring 2 ($40.4M) and well above 2021’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It ($24.1M). Blumhouse could certainly use the win. They haven’t had an unequivocal box office hit since Five Nights at Freddy’s over two years ago, with no subsequent releases notching above $36.9M (last October’s Speak No Evil) at the domestic box office.
Long Range Forecast — September 12, 2025
The Long Walk | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $20M
Hunger Games franchise veteran Francis Lawrence reteams with Lionsgate for another teen-populated dystopia, this time adapted from an early novella by Stephen King. Marketing materials presented at CinemaCon make this title look promising, though comps are hard to come by. Aside from Lawrence’s 2023 Hunger Games prequel The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, which debuted to a modest $44.6M and rode strong holdovers to a $166.3M domestic total, the theatrically released YA dystopia is a trend that remains firmly in the 2010s. Recent releases with some common ground include dystopias The First Purge ($17.3M domestic opening) and The Forever Purge ($12.5M), YA novel adaptation Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children ($28.8M), and the dystopia-adjacent Never Let Go ($4.4M), released by Lionsgate last September.
Long Range Forecast — September 12, 2025
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale | Focus Features / Universal
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $16M – $22M
The third film adaptation of the popular series should connect with its core audience, but it isn’t expected to appeal much further. A short exclusivity window of three weeks and stagnating attendance from older audience has us conservative on this title at the moment. The box office high water mark for the franchise came with its first film, Downton Abbey, which bowed to $31M and topped out just shy of $100M in September 2019. Its sequel, 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, moved to May and saw its grosses take a sharp tumble—$16M during its opening weekend, adding up to $44.1M in the seven weeks (five of them theatrically exclusive) it was in theaters. For its Grand Finale, Focus moves the franchise back to September, where it has a shot at exceeding box office receipts for the second film, if not the first.
Long Range Forecast — September 12, 2025
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $20M
Sony subsidiary Crunchyroll has had great success with the Demon Slayer franchise, which first made its way to domestic theaters in the middle of a dismal 2020; Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba: Mugen Train ($21.2M domestic opening) became the highest global grosser of that year and the highest-grossing Japanese title of all time. Further franchise entries Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Hashira Training opened to $10.1M and $11.5M, respectively, in Q1 2023 and Q1 2024. Infinity Castle, moving to Q3, is expected to open in the same range or a bit higher, though our forecasting panel cautions that anime titles are not known for their staying power after opening weekend: second weekend drops for Mugen Train and To the Hashira Training were -69.5% and -82%, respectively.
Long Range Forecast — September 12, 2025
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues | Bleecker Street
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4M – $6M
Name recognition alone will help this long-gestating sequel connect with older audiences—though, as an R-rated comedy, its chances of breaking out are slim. Earlier this month The Naked Gun underperformed with a $16.8M domestic opening; other recent stabs at breaking the curse of the R-rated, theatrically released comedy are 2023’s No Hard Feelings ($15M domestic opening) and Strays ($8.2M) and 2016’s Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping ($4.6M). Distributor Bleecker Street’s highest-grossing film to date, August 2017 release Logan Lucky ($7.6M), is also a comedy, albeit one rated PG-13.
Tracking Updates [as of August 15]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 8/15 | Highest 2 Lowest | $1M – $3M | A24 |
| 8/15 | Honey Don’t! | $2M – $4M | Focus Features |
| 8/15 | Americana | $1M – $3M | Lionsgate |
| 8/22 | Nobody 2 | $6M – $10M | Universal |
| 8/22 | Relay | $1M – $3M | Bleecker Street |
| 8/22 | Ne Zha 2 (English-language re-release) | $1M – $3M | A24 |
| 8/29 | The Toxic Avenger | $2M – $4M | Cineverse |
| 8/29 | Caught Stealing | $10M – $20M | Sony |
| 8/29 | The Roses | $3M – $5M | Searchlight Pictures |
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