Long Range Forecast — October 11, 2024
Terrifier 3 | Iconic Events
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $5M – $10M
The run-up to Halloween continues with Iconic Events’ mid-October release of Terrifier 3, the latest in a cult-favorite horror franchise known for its extreme gore. While Terrifier 3 lacks the sheer earning power of other, more mainstream horror titles opening in the coming weeks—specifically this weekend’s Speak No Evil from Universal and Smile 2 from Paramount (Oct. 18)—it’s considered a major title among the diehard horror crowd, a demographic that has a record of elevating offbeat horror films to box office success far outstripping their budgets. (See this year’s Longlegs and 2022’s Skinamarink as two examples.)
Still, the niche nature of this title makes forecasting difficult. Iconic Events typically distributes event cinema titles, and the screen count and marketing push they’ll be able to manage for a more robust release is unknown. Iconic gave the first Terrifier film a small theatrical run in 2018, though it would earn the bulk of its box office in late summer 2023, when renewed interest in the franchise prompted them to re-release the film. In its second run, Terrifier—which had already been on home video for five years at that point—earned $339,946.
Much of that renewed interest came from the success of Terrifier 2, released in October 2022—October 6, compared to Terrifier 3′s October 11. Word of mouth—including widely circulated reports that it was making moviegoers pass out and vomit—drove ticket sales from horror die-hards. Box office grew +28% between weeks one and two despite a drop in footprint of 70 screens. The following week, 55 of those screens were added back–and box office increased by 70.4%. Across its 8-week domestic run, Terrifier 2 earned $10.6M against a reported budget of $250,000.
The unexpected success of Terrifier 2 has led to more pre-release excitement this time around. Terrifier and Terrifier 2 are coming back to theaters in a double bill on September 27, which should serve to drive interest in Terrifier 3—especially since Terrifier 2 ended with a cliffhanger. Pre-release brand partnerships should also boost interest and social media engagement; so far, there’s an Art the Clown skin in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and an Art the Clown popcorn bucket, which per director Damien Leone will be available to pre-order through AMC, Regal, and Cinemark. The backing of these major national chains provides some indication that Terrifier 3 will receive a more robust screen count than its predecessors, reflecting a higher opening weekend potential for the third part of the franchise.
As for comps outside the Terrifier franchise—they’re hard to pin down. Warner Bros. had great success bringing the OG killer clown, Pennywise, to theaters with It: Chapters One (2017; domestic opening $123.4M, domestic total $328.8M) and Two (2019; $91M domestic opening, $211.6M domestic total), though the films’ profile—not to mention their screen counts and budgets—are so much higher than Terrifier 3‘s that using them as a benchmark is all but useless. Universal had success with a more modestly scaled slasher franchise in Happy Death Day (2017; domestic opening $26M, domestic total $55.6M) and Happy Death Day 2U (2019; $9.4M domestic opening, $28.1M domestic total), but both films are rated PG-13. The closest comp might be United Artist’s 2019 Child’s Play remake (domestic opening $14M, domestic total $29.2M), which is rated R. However, Child’s Play came out during the summer, not October; is based on a more mainstream horror property that’s built its fanbase over decades; and opened on around 3,000 screens, a number that Terrifer 3 is unlikely to reach, barring a positively huge jump from Terrifier 2‘s maximum screen count of 1,550.
While our range suggests a $10M debut is possible for Terrifier 3, we believe that figure to be the film’s ceiling in terms of opening weekend potential. We expect this title to deliver to its core audience, opening in the mid-to-high single-digit range.
Joker Folie a Deux | Warner Bros.
Updated Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $60M – $100M
What a difference a week makes. Awareness and social media buzz had our forecasting panel riding high on the Joker sequel ahead of its October 4 debut. Early ticket sales in the film’s pre-sales window suggest otherwise. Sluggish demand from our panel of exhibitors paints a challenging picture for a movie we had originally tagged as a $100M+ lock in its opening weekend. That benchmark now appears to be the ceiling, not the floor, unless business picks up significantly in the weeks leading to release. A lukewarm reaction out of the Venice Film Festival isn’t helping its cause either, with a critical reception suggesting a potentially divisive response from its core audience.
Tracking Updates [as of 9/12]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 9/20/24 | Transformers One | $40 – $50M | Paramount |
| 9/20/24 | Never Let Go | $7 – $10M | Lionsgate |
| 9/27/24 | The Wild Robot | $25 – $35M | Universal |
| 9/27/24 | Megalopolis | $4 – $8M | Lionsgate |
| 10/4/24 | Joker Folie a Deux | $60 – $100M | Warner Bros |
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