Long Range Forecast: The Addams Family and Gemini Man

Our look into October and the early portion of 2019’s final quarter continues this week with two new additions to the long range forecast.

The Addams Family
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million

PROS:

  • The franchise name could appeal to adults of multiple generations (thanks to the original 1960s TV series and the popular big-screen features in the early 1990s). With potentially solid appeal to their kids (and grandkids) — plus no major competition from animated releases until mid-November’s Frozen II — the compounded family interest and staying power could turn this into a solid autumn success.

  • Proximity to Halloween season in particular should provide a boost in target audience interest, with initial comps including films like the two recent Goosebumps films and The House with a Clock In Its Walls. This could also appeal to fans of the Hotel Transylvania series.

CONS:

  • Opening in Abominable‘s third weekend may be enough distance to prevent major overlap, but if that film generates strong word of mouth, there could still be moderate crossover for the kiddie audience.

  • Likewise, opening one week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil puts Addams in range of having to compete for some of the young female Disney crowd.

Gemini Man
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 30 million

PROS:

  • Will Smith’s return to the industry forefront in this year’s blockbuster run by Aladdin is certainly a factor to keep in mind as his older fans may next be looking forward to something more akin to the actor’s adult-driven hits like I Am Legend and Enemy of the State. In the right role, and with the right product, he’s still capable of driving breakout films.

  • Acclaimed filmmaker Ang Lee is promising a unique visual experience with the de-aged Smith facing off against himself. Although the 120FPS distribution isn’t expected to be wide enough to have significant impact on box office returns, premium theater runs could be healthy if reviews and word of mouth for the movie itself prove strong — which would also prove fruitful given a relative lack of adult-centric competition in late October.

CONS:

  • Releasing one week after Joker will put this in an intriguing position. Should that DC pic win over adult moviegoers, Gemini could perform more in line with films like Blade Runner 2049, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, or (worst case scenario) Smith’s own Focus.

  • Trailers have drawn online comparisons to Looper and other “man vs. self/clone” films, which could leave some of the target genre fan audience harder to win over with the feeling of a narrative they’ve seen before.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/21/2019 Ready or Not n/a n/a   n/a   n/a Fox Searchlight
8/23/2019 Angel Has Fallen $14,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $47,000,000 -4% 3,000 Lionsgate
8/23/2019 Overcomer $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $5,500,000 -15% $19,000,000 -21% 1,700 Sony / AFFIRM Films
8/30/2019 Las Píldoras De Mi Novio (My Boyfriend’s Meds) n/a n/a   n/a   n/a Lionsgate
9/6/2019 It: Chapter Two $115,000,000 – $155,000,000 $138,000,000   $310,000,000     Warner Bros. / New Line
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $7,500,000 – $12,500,000 $10,000,000   $33,000,000     Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $13,000,000   $39,000,000     STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $20,000,000   $65,000,000     Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 $14,500,000   $35,000,000     Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $19,000,000 – $24,000,000 $22,500,000   $75,000,000     Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $70,000,000 – $95,000,000 $81,000,000 5% $180,000,000 3%   Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000 NEW $70,000,000 NEW   United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW   Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi n/a n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

News Stories

Forecasts & Tracking

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Tracking for Mini-Marvel Franchise Best; Will It Become 2023’s First $100M+ Opener?

Shawn Robbins  • 

2023’s first major tentpole is just four weeks away, representing the first of three Marvel Cinematic Universe theatrical releases this year. Here’s what’s driving preliminary tracking for the anticipated sequel. Ant-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaDisney & Marvel StudiosFebruary 17, 2023...