Long Range Forecast: The Grudge, Plus Charlie’s Angels, Knives Out, and More Updates

Our long range report rolls over into the new year — and the new decade, depending who you ask — with one lone release currently on the calendar for Friday, January 3, 2020 as most studios are avoiding the final rush by audiences catching up on holiday releases before returning to work and school.

The Grudge (2020)
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

PROS:

  • The original domestic remake was a runaway hit in 2004, earning $110.3 million off a $39.1 million stateside debut — earning over $187 million globally.

  • The relative lack of direct competition for horror fans this time of year could be a boon to success. Genre films like Insidious: The Last Key and The Woman In Black 2 have capitalized well on the first weekend of January in recent years.

  • Starring John Cho, Betty Gilpin, and Andrea Riseborough, this remake’s cast of recognizable names and faces could help it stand out.

CONS:

  • With a slew of big holiday titles yet to enter the market, tracking for new releases in the early part of the year is notoriously challenging with most audiences focused on the jam-packed window ahead.

  • Given the lukewarm performance of other horror remakes like Rings ($13 million opening / $27.8 million domestic total) and 2016’s Blair Witch ($9.6 million / $20.8 million), we’re cautious on this film as it remains to be seen how much demand there really is for another entry in the franchise. (Of note, 2006’s The Grudge 2 dropped significantly from its predecessor with a $20.8 million opening and $39.1 million domestic finish.)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
11/15/2019 Charlie’s Angels (2019) $15,000,000 – $22,000,000 $18,000,000 -5% $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 -5% 3,300* Sony / Columbia
11/15/2019 Ford v. Ferrari $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $32,000,000   $100,000,000 – $140,000,000   3,500* Fox
11/15/2019 The Good Liar $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,500,000 -6% $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 -6% 2,500* Warner Bros.
11/22/2019 21 Bridges $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $10,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000   2,800 STX
11/22/2019 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $19,000,000   $85,000,000 – $115,000,000   3,000 Sony / Columbia
11/22/2019 Frozen 2 $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 $125,000,000   $420,000,000 – $520,000,000   4,400 Disney
11/27/2019 Knives Out $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $18,000,000 3% $70,000,000 – $105,000,000 21%   Lionsgate
11/27/2019 Queen & Slim $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $7,500,000 -6% $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 -6%   Universal
11/29/2019 Dark Waters (Expansion)   n/a         Focus Features
12/6/2019 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $4,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000     STX
12/13/2019 Black Christmas $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000 8% $28,000,000 – $38,000,000 9%   Universal
12/13/2019 Jumanji: The Next Level $66,000,000 – $76,000,000 $70,000,000   $250,000,000 – $300,000,000     Sony / Columbia
12/13/2019 Richard Jewell $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $60,000,000 – $80,000,000     Warner Bros.
12/20/2019 Cats $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $60,000,000 – $120,000,000     Universal
12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 $200,000,000   $550,000,000 – $750,000,000     Disney / Lucasfilm
12/20/2019 Bombshell (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000     Lionsgate
12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 $20,000,000   $80,000,000 – $120,000,000     Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 $16,000,000   $70,000,000 – $110,000,000     Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019 Uncut Gems   n/a         A24
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 NEW   Sony / Columbia

* = official studio estimate

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report