Our long range report rolls over into the new year — and the new decade, depending who you ask — with one lone release currently on the calendar for Friday, January 3, 2020 as most studios are avoiding the final rush by audiences catching up on holiday releases before returning to work and school.
The Grudge (2020)
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
PROS:
- The original domestic remake was a runaway hit in 2004, earning $110.3 million off a $39.1 million stateside debut — earning over $187 million globally.
- The relative lack of direct competition for horror fans this time of year could be a boon to success. Genre films like Insidious: The Last Key and The Woman In Black 2 have capitalized well on the first weekend of January in recent years.
- Starring John Cho, Betty Gilpin, and Andrea Riseborough, this remake’s cast of recognizable names and faces could help it stand out.
CONS:
- With a slew of big holiday titles yet to enter the market, tracking for new releases in the early part of the year is notoriously challenging with most audiences focused on the jam-packed window ahead.
- Given the lukewarm performance of other horror remakes like Rings ($13 million opening / $27.8 million domestic total) and 2016’s Blair Witch ($9.6 million / $20.8 million), we’re cautious on this film as it remains to be seen how much demand there really is for another entry in the franchise. (Of note, 2006’s The Grudge 2 dropped significantly from its predecessor with a $20.8 million opening and $39.1 million domestic finish.)
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/15/2019 | Charlie’s Angels (2019) | $15,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $18,000,000 | -5% | $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 | -5% | 3,300* | Sony / Columbia |
| 11/15/2019 | Ford v. Ferrari | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 | 3,500* | Fox | ||
| 11/15/2019 | The Good Liar | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,500,000 | -6% | $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 | -6% | 2,500* | Warner Bros. |
| 11/22/2019 | 21 Bridges | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | 2,800 | STX | ||
| 11/22/2019 | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $115,000,000 | 3,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 11/22/2019 | Frozen 2 | $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $420,000,000 – $520,000,000 | 4,400 | Disney | ||
| 11/27/2019 | Knives Out | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $18,000,000 | 3% | $70,000,000 – $105,000,000 | 21% | Lionsgate | |
| 11/27/2019 | Queen & Slim | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,500,000 | -6% | $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 | -6% | Universal | |
| 11/29/2019 | Dark Waters (Expansion) | n/a | Focus Features | |||||
| 12/6/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | STX | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Black Christmas | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | 8% | $28,000,000 – $38,000,000 | 9% | Universal | |
| 12/13/2019 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $66,000,000 – $76,000,000 | $70,000,000 | $250,000,000 – $300,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Richard Jewell | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | Fox / Blue Sky | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems | n/a | A24 | |||||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | NEW | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia |
* = official studio estimate
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
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