This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of two wide releases scheduled for March 16. Our early analysis and forecasts:
PROS:
- Tomb Raider marks the third big screen treatment for the video game property and essentially serves as a reboot of the cinematic side of the franchise made famous by Angelina Jolie. Recasting with Oscar winner Alicia Vikander has fans optimistic, and the rise of female-driven action films could be a boon to a success here if reception is strong.
- Love, Simon will court teen and young adult crowds, anchored by fans of Becky Albertalli’s novel, Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda. The film’s strong messages could resonate with a variety of youthful moviegoers, making this a sleeper candidate to watch out for.
CONS:
- Initial social media buzz for Tomb Raider is modest at this stage (falling more in line with the likes of Atomic Blonde and the Resident Evil franchise), while the recent history of video game adaptations points to conservative box office expectations.
- With the recent breakout of Wonder being an exception, the proliferation of young adult-targeted book adaptations has led to some burnout in the genre, as seen by the likes of modest (but still very profitable) performers like Everything, Everything and Paper Towns. That said, it’s far too early to write anything in stone for Love, Simon.
The 8-Week Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 1/26/2018 | Maze Runner: The Death Cure | $23,000,000 | -4% | $59,000,000 | -9% | 3,800 | Fox |
| 2/2/2018 | Winchester | $11,500,000 | +15% | $31,000,000 | +11% | 2,800 | Lionsgate / CBS Films |
| 2/9/2018 | The 15:17 to Paris | $15,000,000 | -6% | $47,000,000 | -6% | Warner Bros. | |
| 2/9/2018 | Fifty Shades Freed | $40,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/9/2018 | Peter Rabbit | $19,000,000 | $78,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Black Panther | $120,000,000 | $335,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Early Man | $4,000,000 | $20,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Samson | $3,500,000 | $13,000,000 | Pure Flix | |||
| 2/23/2018 | Annihilation | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 2/23/2018 | Every Day | n/a | n/a | Orion | |||
| 2/23/2018 | Game Night | $17,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 2/23/2018 | The War with Grandpa | n/a | n/a | TWC / Dimension | |||
| 3/2/2018 | Death Wish | $13,500,000 | $34,000,000 | Annapurna / MGM | |||
| 3/2/2018 | Red Sparrow | $26,000,000 | $84,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 3/9/2018 | Gringo | $3,000,000 | $7,500,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 3/9/2018 | The Hurricane Heist | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 3/9/2018 | Strangers: Prey at Night | $4,000,000 | $8,500,000 | Aviron | |||
| 3/9/2018 | The Upside | n/a | n/a | The Weinstein Company | |||
| 3/9/2018 | A Wrinkle In Time | $52,000,000 | $154,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 3/16/2018 | Love, Simon | $13,000,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 3/16/2018 | Tomb Raider | $22,000,000 | NEW | $55,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. |
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