Long Range Forecast: ‘Tomb Raider’ & ‘Love, Simon’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of two wide releases scheduled for March 16. Our early analysis and forecasts:

PROS:

  • Tomb Raider marks the third big screen treatment for the video game property and essentially serves as a reboot of the cinematic side of the franchise made famous by Angelina Jolie. Recasting with Oscar winner Alicia Vikander has fans optimistic, and the rise of female-driven action films could be a boon to a success here if reception is strong.
  • Love, Simon will court teen and young adult crowds, anchored by fans of Becky Albertalli’s novel, Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda. The film’s strong messages could resonate with a variety of youthful moviegoers, making this a sleeper candidate to watch out for.

CONS:

  • Initial social media buzz for Tomb Raider is modest at this stage (falling more in line with the likes of Atomic Blonde and the Resident Evil franchise), while the recent history of video game adaptations points to conservative box office expectations.
  • With the recent breakout of Wonder being an exception, the proliferation of young adult-targeted book adaptations has led to some burnout in the genre, as seen by the likes of modest (but still very profitable) performers like Everything, Everything and Paper Towns. That said, it’s far too early to write anything in stone for Love, Simon.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $23,000,000 -4% $59,000,000 -9% 3,800 Fox
2/2/2018 Winchester $11,500,000 +15% $31,000,000 +11% 2,800 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $15,000,000 -6% $47,000,000 -6% Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Universal
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $19,000,000 $78,000,000 Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $120,000,000 $335,000,000 Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $4,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day n/a n/a Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/23/2018 The War with Grandpa n/a n/a TWC / Dimension
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 $84,000,000 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 $7,500,000 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 $8,500,000 Aviron
3/9/2018 The Upside n/a n/a The Weinstein Company
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 $154,000,000 Disney
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $22,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

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