Long Range Forecast — November 22, 2024
Wicked Part 1 | Universal Studios
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $100M – $125M
Live-action movie musicals tend to be hit-or-miss at the box office; for every Chicago ($170.6 in 2002), there’s a Cats ($27.1M in 2019). And, in 2024, there’s Wicked, the first part of which goes up against Gladiator II (see our forecast) this Thanksgiving. Distributor Universal has been going all-out on marketing since April’s CinemaCon, with marketing spots and promotional tie-ins reaching near-Barbie levels of ubiquity. This extensive marketing push, paired with strong pre-sales, popular source material more relevant to modern audiences than other recent examples from the genre, and a strong ensemble cast, serve to enhance optimistic expectations for now.
Recent years have seen the bulk of live-action movie musicals—like 2023’s Wonka and The Color Purple, 2021’s West Side Story, 2019’s Cats, or 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns—hit theaters in December, the better to lure in holiday audiences. Universal’s decision to release Wicked Part 1 over Thanksgiving could prove canny should the film enjoy solid holds through the final weeks of 2024, when it will be competing with wide releases Moana 2 (Nov. 24), Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim and Kraven the Hunter (Dec. 13), Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Dec. 20), and Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown (Dec. 25), among other titles more aimed at specialty audiences.
Word-of-mouth will be essential, as it is for the live-action movie musical in general, with films like Wonka ($39M domestic opening, $218.4M domestic total), Mary Poppins Returns ($23.5M domestic opening, $171.9M domestic total), and The Greatest Showman ($8.8M domestic opening, $174.3M domestic total) being branded disappointments by many in the trade press after opening weekend, only to leg out during a quiet Q1 of the following year. On the flip side are recent Broadway adaptations West Side Story ($10.5M domestic opening, $38.5M domestic total) and The Color Purple ($11.7M domestic opening, $60.6M domestic total), both of which largely fizzled after their respective opening weekends.
With early reviews for Wicked still pending, the word-of-mouth question is up in the air, but the presence of pop superstar Ariana Grande and theater superstar Cynthia Erivo in the leading roles, the enduring popularity of the Wicked stage musical, and the brand recognition enjoyed by The Wizard of Oz even among those who don’t care for Broadway, could help Wicked Part 1 power through any negative critical reception.
Tracking Updates [as of 10/25]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 10/25/24 | Venom: The Last Dance | $60 – $80M | Sony |
| 10/25/24 | Conclave | $3 – $5M | Focus Features |
| 11/1/24 | Here | $5 – $10M | Sony |
| 11/8/24 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $5 – $10M | Lionsgate |
| 11/8/24 | Heretic | $6 – $10M | A24 |
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