This week’s report takes an early look at the anticipated continuation of the Conjuring franchise, the third film in the Annabelle spin-off series.
We’ve also included a handful of May updates in the chart below, many of which come in the wake of Avengers: Endgame‘s historic ongoing performance. As is common in these types of market-breaking circumstances, tracking for select upcoming titles may be more volatile than usual in the weeks ahead.
Annabelle Comes Home
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 45 million
PROS:
- The Conjuring universe films have earned consistently strong box office returns thanks to fan goodwill, with the most recent entry (The Nun) earning $117.5 million domestically off a $53.8 million opening weekend.
- Stars of the main Conjuring films, Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson, are set to join this third Annabelle-specific release, which could bring out a few more fans than the doll’s previous “solo” movies.
- The horror genre continues to be a stalwart for the industry, and a relative lack of direct competition throughout July should allow a healthy runway for this sequel provided positive word of mouth.
CONS:
- Following Ma and Child’s Play in June, this will mark the third horror/thriller release of the month. That fact, combined with close proximity to the Independence Day holiday a few days after opening, could create minor back-loading.
- Most franchises reach a saturation point, if not outright fatigue, after a certain point. Pre-release reviews could be key toward preventing that for this title, the seventh film in the Conjuring universe (counting The Curse of La Llorona).
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 5/10/2019 | The Hustle | $15,500,000 | 7% | $44,000,000 | 7% | 2,750 | Mirror Films / MGM |
| 5/10/2019 | Pokemon: Detective Pikachu | $55,000,000 – $79,000,000 | -18% | $215,000,000 | -14% | 4,100 | Warner Bros. |
| 5/10/2019 | Poms | $9,000,000 | -5% | $38,000,000 | -5% | 2,700 | STX |
| 5/10/2019 | Tolkien | n/a | n/a | 1,300 | Disney / Fox Searchlight | ||
| 5/17/2019 | A Dog’s Journey | $13,000,000 | 13% | $46,700,000 | 13% | 3,000 | Universal |
| 5/17/2019 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $37,000,000 | $106,000,000 | 3,200 | Lionsgate / Summit | ||
| 5/17/2019 | The Sun Is Also a Star | $10,000,000 | -20% | $29,000,000 | -19% | 2,800 | Warner Bros. |
| 5/24/2019 | Aladdin | $66,000,000 | -18% | $185,000,000 | -16% | – | Disney |
| 5/24/2019 | Booksmart | n/a | n/a | – | Annapurna Pictures | ||
| 5/24/2019 | BrightBurn | $10,000,000 | NEW | $23,000,000 | NEW | – | Sony / Columbia |
| 5/31/2019 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $54,000,000 | $144,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Ma | $24,000,000 | $63,000,000 | – | Universal | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Rocketman | $37,000,000 | $165,000,000 | – | Paramount | ||
| 6/7/2019 | Dark Phoenix | $47,000,000 | $113,000,000 | – | Fox | ||
| 6/7/2019 | Late Night | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 6/7/2019 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $80,000,000 | $263,000,000 | – | Universal | ||
| 6/14/2019 | Men In Black International | $39,000,000 | $107,000,000 | – | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 6/14/2019 | Shaft (2019) | $31,000,000 | $100,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. | ||
| 6/21/2019 | Anna | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 6/21/2019 | Child’s Play (2019) | $17,000,000 | $42,500,000 | – | Orion Pictures | ||
| 6/21/2019 | Toy Story 4 | $113,000,000 | $390,000,000 | – | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 6/28/2019 | Yesterday | n/a | n/a | – | Universal | ||
| 6/28/2019 | Annabelle Comes Home | $39,000,000 | NEW | $101,000,000 | NEW | – | Warner Bros. / New Line |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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