Long Range Tracking: Brahms: The Boy 2 and Call of the Wild

This week’s report takes a look at two late February releases currently on the slate for post-Presidents Day weekend debuts on Friday the 21st.

Brahms: The Boy 2
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:

  • The first film was a sleeper success on a low budget, earning $35.8 million domestically.

  • Katie Holmes steps in as the star here, which could elevate the sequel’s profile a bit.

CONS:

  • Opening in the midst of numerous horror/thrillers early in the year could limit potential, especially since it’s been four years since the original’s solid run. Some momentum may have been lost.

Call of the Wild
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million

PROS:

  • Harrison Ford’s presence could elevate appeal among adult audiences and parents for this family-friendly adaptation.

  • Initial metrics from the recent trailer indicate strong sentiment and the possibility of a leggy run.

CONS:

  • Sonic the Hedgehog‘s word of mouth could be key to watch for given the crossover appeal to family moviegoers.

Estimated Location Counts

  • The Grudge (2,500 on January 3)
  • 1917 (3,200 wide on January 10)
  • Just Mercy (2,500 wide on January 10)
  • Like a Boss (3,000 on January 10)
  • Underwater (2,400 on January 10)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $25,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $24,000,000   $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $94,000,000   Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $59,000,000   Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $51,000,000   Paramount
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $18,000,000   Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000   $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 $64,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000   $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 $145,000,000   Universal
1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000   STX
1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure   n/a     n/a   Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020 Run   n/a     n/a   Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000   Universal
1/31/2020 Gretel and Hansel $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000   United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020 The Rhythm Section $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   Paramount
2/7/2020 Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $49,000,000   $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 $125,000,000   Warner Bros.
2/14/2020 Fantasy Island $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $17,000,000   $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 $44,000,000   Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020 The Photograph $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 $35,000,000   Universal
2/14/2020 Sonic the Hedgehog $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $26,000,000   $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 $86,000,000   Paramount
2/21/2020 Brahms: The Boy 2 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 $17,800,000 NEW STX
2/21/2020 Call of the Wild $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 $50,000,000 NEW Fox

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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