This week’s report takes a look at two late February releases currently on the slate for post-Presidents Day weekend debuts on Friday the 21st.
Brahms: The Boy 2
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
PROS:
- The first film was a sleeper success on a low budget, earning $35.8 million domestically.
- Katie Holmes steps in as the star here, which could elevate the sequel’s profile a bit.
CONS:
- Opening in the midst of numerous horror/thrillers early in the year could limit potential, especially since it’s been four years since the original’s solid run. Some momentum may have been lost.
Call of the Wild
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million
PROS:
- Harrison Ford’s presence could elevate appeal among adult audiences and parents for this family-friendly adaptation.
- Initial metrics from the recent trailer indicate strong sentiment and the possibility of a leggy run.
CONS:
- Sonic the Hedgehog‘s word of mouth could be key to watch for given the crossover appeal to family moviegoers.
Estimated Location Counts
- The Grudge (2,500 on January 3)
- 1917 (3,200 wide on January 10)
- Just Mercy (2,500 wide on January 10)
- Like a Boss (3,000 on January 10)
- Underwater (2,400 on January 10)
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $25,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $94,000,000 | Universal / DreamWorks | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $59,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $51,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $18,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $64,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 | $145,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $38,000,000 | STX | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | Run | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Fantasy Island | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 | $44,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 2/14/2020 | The Photograph | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $35,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Sonic the Hedgehog | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $86,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | NEW | $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 | $17,800,000 | NEW | STX |
| 2/21/2020 | Call of the Wild | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $15,000,000 | NEW | $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 | $50,000,000 | NEW | Fox |
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
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