Long Range Tracking: ‘Captain Marvel’ Soars In Early Trends, Could Reach $140M+ March Debut

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It’s been eight months since this report last covered a Marvel Cinematic Universe title, but 2019 promises to be another massive year for the Disney franchise with three more highly anticipated chapters. The first will open March 8.

Captain Marvel
Opening Weekend Range: $140 – $180 million

PROS:

  • Reaching the opening weekend level of past March blockbusters like The Hunger Games ($152.5 million), Batman v Superman ($166 million), and Beauty and the Beast ($174.8 million) is in play based on current tracking metrics.
  • Audiences have demanded a female-driven film from the MCU since its inception eleven years ago. Delivering on that promise with the franchise’s most powerful superhero yet has only strengthened interest, and the major success of DC’s Wonder Woman underlines the potential of a strong female character in the lucrative Marvel universe.
  • Casting Oscar-winner Brie Larson alongside the return of series veterans Samuel L. Jackson and Clark Gregg further deepens the connection to past and future Marvel films.
  • On top of representing the first female-led film in the series, the character’s tease at the end of Avengers: Infinity War — as well as the likelihood of connecting the dots between that film and May’s forthcoming Avengers: Endgame — may serve to give this origin story a higher “must see” factor (ala Black Panther) than most origin films.
  • Following advance ticket sales starting earlier this week, Fandango reported it has become the third best pre-seller in MCU history after Infinity War and Black Panther.
  • Early trailer reactions have been very positive, which is par for the Marvel course these days. Two months from release, 89 percent of surveyed audiences in our Trailer Impact report said they are “definitely interested” or “interested” — only 5 percent less than Endgame‘s interest score.
  • Taking place in the 1990s, the nostalgia card could be effectively played with older millennial and Gen-X moviegoers. With strong appeal to women of all ages, four-quadrant potential is notably high.

CONS:

  • In the world of Disney’s MCU, there’s every expectation that the film will be a success even if it performs at the most conservative end of expectations. That being said, reviews and word of mouth — as with any film — will be very important toward opening weekend and long-run potential. For perspective, prior to Black Panther‘s historic $202 million opening, no origin film in the MCU had topped $100 million in its first three days.
  • With films like Dumbo and Shazam! opening late March/early April, plus a seven-week window before Endgame, the film’s opening-to-total multiple could be a little softer than Panther‘s (which opened more than two months ahead of Infinity War last year).
  • Strong early sales could partly be attributable to buzz around the character’s involvement with Endgame. As such, it’s difficult to gauge at this time if the film is following typical origin film patterns or is veering more closely to pre-sale trends like those of a sequel.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/18/2019 Glass $50,000,000 -25% $108,000,000 -40% 3,500 Universal
1/25/2019 The Kid Who Would Be King $10,000,000 $40,000,000 3,300 Fox
1/25/2019 Serenity (2019) $6,000,000 -14% $17,000,000 -19% 2,300 Aviron
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $9,000,000 -10% $25,000,000 -11% Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $60,000,000 $213,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy n/a n/a Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 Paramount
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $14,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $15,500,000 7% $44,000,000 7% Fox
2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family n/a n/a MGM
2/14/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $24,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 $155,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 Rhythm Section n/a n/a Paramount
2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin
3/1/2019 Chaos Walking n/a n/a Lionsgate
3/1/2019 Greta n/a n/a Focus Features
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 NEW $465,000,000 NEW Disney / Marvel

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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