Long Range Tracking: ‘Creed 2,’ ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet,’ & ‘Robin Hood’

This week’s report features an early look at Thanksgiving weekend and how the frame’s three major releases are currently tracking.

Fun fact: Disney currently owns the top nine three-day Thanksgiving openings of all time. If Ralph Breaks the Internet meets early tracking projections, it would surpass Warner Bros.’ Four Christmases ($31.1 million) to give Disney complete ownership of the holiday’s top ten opening weekends (not accounting for inflation).

Creed 2
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 25 million

The film’s first teaser has generated solid buzz online since debuting nearly two months, while the most recent trailer released this week has stirred up positive conversation once again. While we’re expecting some diminished returns from 2015’s predecessor, the return of Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone in a natural sequel that again touches on the franchise’s nostalgic roots should play to this follow-up’s hopes of counter-programming against the holiday season’s tentpole films.

Ralph Breaks the Internet
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 60 million

No one is betting against Disney these days, and their first sequel to a recent in-house animated hit is poised to deliver another significant holiday run.  Early social media metrics are generally in line with those of films like Moana and Coco, suggesting a similar type of run is in store here. Competition with The Grinch will be a factor as parents and kids have plenty of options to choose from in November and December, but the brand name and goodwill of the first Ralph should help guarantee this will be one of the season’s top hits if reviews/word of mouth turn out strong again.

Robin Hood
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 12 million

Taron Egerton’s rising fame from the Kingsman films and Eddie the Eagle — alongside co-star Jamie Foxx — will be key strengths here, but early sentiment scores for the latest iteration of the iconic character indicate marketing will have some challenges ahead of it. Following its first trailer, Boxoffice is tracking the film’s overall social media footprint behind King Arthur: Legend of the Sword at the same point in the pre-release window. The competitive November market around it adds additional concerns.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $44,000,000 $170,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 4,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $11,000,000 -8% $34,000,000 -8% 2,900 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $20,000,000 $100,000,000 3,600 Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $17,000,000 $54,000,000 3,500 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 $150,000,000 6% Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give (Wide) n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $14,000,000 $41,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $4,000,000 $8,750,000 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 $125,000,000 Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $15,000,000 $40,000,000 Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $20,000,000 $79,000,000 Disney
11/2/2018 The List n/a n/a Paramount
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a Amazon Studios
11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $15,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $79,000,000 $305,000,000 Universal
11/9/2018 Overlord $14,000,000 $42,000,000 Paramount
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $75,000,000 $222,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 n/a Paramount
11/16/2018 A Private War (Expansion) n/a n/a Aviron
11/16/2018 Widows $20,000,000 $78,000,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed 2 $23,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW MGM
11/21/2018 The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Sony
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 NEW $200,000,000 NEW Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,500,000 NEW $26,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book n/a n/a Universal

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s complete suite of forecasting and data services.

News Stories