Long Range Tracking: Does The Invisible Man Show Breakout Potential?; Updates on Bad Boys for Life, Dolittle, and More

Photo Credit: Mark Rogers/Universal Pictures

This week’s update welcomes the addition of February 28’s lone new release (as currently scheduled). We’ve also updated tracking and forecasts for several key January titles as models come into a bit more clearer view now that the crowded holiday corridor begins to give way to a fresh 2020 market.

The Invisible Man
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 40 million

PROS:

  • Star Elisabeth Moss is a notable presence given her ongoing, award-winning success in The Handmaid’s Tale among other career highlights in recent years.

  • Blumhouse has a strong track record for delivering financially lucrative winners in the horror genre, often crossing over into runaway hit territory with films and franchises like Insidious, The Purge, Happy Death Day, Get Out, Split, and Halloween — among many others.

  • The film’s first trailer generated very positive metrics upon its release a few months ago, suggesting the combination of high production value, familiar IP to adult audiences, and the surge of thrillers appealing to teens and young adults could combine to deliver an early 2020 hit for the genre.

CONS:

  • Following in the crowded horror footsteps of Brahms: The Boy 2, Fantasy Island, Gretel and Hansel, The Turning, Underwater, and The Grudge, strong reviews and/or word of mouth could be important for delivering a breakout here since fans of the genre will have had plenty of options to choose from in a short time frame early in the year.

Estimated Location Counts

  • 1917 (3,200 wide on January 10)
  • Just Mercy (2,200 wide on January 10)
  • Like a Boss (2,900 on January 10)
  • Underwater (3,000 on January 10)
  • Bad Boys for Life (3,300 on January 17)
  • Dolittle (3,500 on January 17)

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $24,000,000 – $29,000,000 $27,000,000 13% $90,000,000 – $120,000,000 $100,000,000 6% Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 $12,000,000 -14% $45,000,000 – $65,000,000 $51,000,000 -14% Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $13,500,000 -21% $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $45,000,000 -12% Paramount
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $14,000,000 -22% Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $32,000,000 28% $70,000,000 – $100,000,000 $85,000,000 33% Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $28,000,000 -30% $90,000,000 – $140,000,000 $102,000,000 -30% Universal
1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000   STX
1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure   n/a     n/a   Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020 Run   n/a     n/a   Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000   Universal
1/31/2020 Gretel and Hansel $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000   United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020 The Rhythm Section $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   Paramount
2/7/2020 Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $49,000,000   $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 $125,000,000   Warner Bros.
2/14/2020 Fantasy Island $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $17,000,000   $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 $44,000,000   Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020 The Photograph $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 $35,000,000   Universal
2/14/2020 Sonic the Hedgehog $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $26,000,000   $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 $86,000,000   Paramount
2/21/2020 Brahms: The Boy 2 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000   $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 $17,800,000   STX
2/21/2020 Call of the Wild $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $15,000,000   $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 $50,000,000   Fox
2/28/2020 The Invisible Man $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $30,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 $80,000,000 NEW Universal

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