Long Range Tracking: ‘Hotel Transylvania 3’ & ‘Skyscraper’ First Outlooks; Key ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Update

This week’s report takes an early look at two films slated for release on July 13, plus a significant update on next week’s Solo.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 55 million

Social media activity for the three-quel has been very positive thus far, a strong indicator for an animated title still two months from release. The first two films of the franchise excelled with late September releases in 2012 and 2015, and the move to a mid-summer date recalls the success of multiple Ice Age sequels in years past. The primary competition for Summer Vacation will be straggling audiences from June’s The Incredibles 2, and perhaps more directly, family audiences still checking out Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

Dwayne Johnson’s star power is almost impossible to argue against right now after the blockbuster success of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and this past April’s Rampage, just to name his most recent two. Early trailer reactions for this original action pic — which has drawn favorable comparisons to Die Hard — have been positive and indicate appeal similar to that of the star’s 2015 hit, San Andreas. Portraying a wounded veteran in this film could further help it earn appeal across middle America. The film’s main disadvantage at the box office: direct competition from fellow actioners The Equalizer 2 (July 20) and July 27’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout.

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Opening Weekend Range: $115 – 140 million (3-day) / $140 – 170 million (4-day)

As cautioned previously, early critical reactions from the film’s first screenings are a key factor in this week’s updated tracking. Although the majority of critics have given the film a positive review so far, social media buzz over the past week dipped sharply below that of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2  during their comparable pre-release windows. This came after Solo had been far ahead of both films in prior weeks.

Deadpool 2’s imminent release and the continued success of Avengers: Infinity War are dominating conversation among both casual audiences and adult male fans, which could be contributing to the weaker footprint in tandem with reviews that, unfortunately, aren’t as broadly enthusiastic as they were for the previous three films. Forecasts remain volatile for now, but it’s possible that Solo rebounds next week when its opening and the holiday weekend are first and foremost on moviegoers’ minds.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $120,000,000 -15% $330,000,000 -15% 4,200 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $12,000,000 -11% $30,000,000 -12% 2,400 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 2,800 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade $3,000,000 $7,500,000 1,300 OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $115,000,000 5% $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $130,000,000 -4% $327,500,000 -4% Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 $39,000,000 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 $55,000,000 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 $225,000,000 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 NEW $155,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $44,000,000 NEW $128,000,000 NEW Universal

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