Long Range Tracking: Toy Story 4 & Child’s Play

This week’s report takes a first look at an anticipated Pixar sequel and another remake of a classic ’80s/’90s horror franchise, two “toy” movies cut from a very different cloth…er, plastic.

Toy Story 4
Opening Weekend Range: $105 – 130 million

PROS:

  • The Toy Story franchise remains beloved by families and Pixar fans after 24 years in action, and the nine-year gap between sequels could serve to aid anticipation among parents who will introduce the series to new generation of kids that’s come about since the previous film.
  • Reactions to early teaser trailers for this sequel have been largely positive, with new characters like Forky and the stuffed animals voiced by Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key standing out so far. The return of key cast members like Tom Hanks’s Woody and Tim Allen’s Buzz Lightyear remain staples, of course.
  • This will represent the last tentpole, computer-animated comedy of the summer, which should bode well if reviews and word of mouth are strong as they have been for each of the first three films.

CONS:

  • Following Toy Story 3 could be a bigger challenge than ever for the franchise after that film earned Oscar recognition and was heralded by many as the perfect conclusion to the series. This won’t deter younger fans, but, the demand among adults who grew up with the original films doesn’t appear to be as measurably strong (yet) as it was for Incredibles 2 or Finding Dory at this stage in the pre-release window.
  • Opening two weeks after The Secret Life of Pets 2 creates an interesting competitive crossover given the very similar target audiences and animated comedy genres. That film’s reception could be key toward Toy Story 4‘s ultimate potential, and may lead to some back-loading later in the run and/or a deflated opening weekend relative to recent blockbuster Pixar sequels like Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory. The lack of a Father’s Day weekend boost will be another advantage missing from this film’s opening weekend arsenal that its predecessor benefited from.

Child’s Play (2019)
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 22 million

PROS:

  • The original films were low-budget successes in the world of B-rate horror back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which might create some nostalgia for a return to the series among adult horror fans.
  • Casting Aubrey Plaza and Brian Tyree Henry could be advantageous toward boosting appeal among millennials.

CONS:

  • The volume of horror titles opening this summer may serve to reduce this film’s chances of a breakout, particularly with Annabelle Comes Home opening one week later and bringing with it a built-in fan base from the Conjuring universe.
  • Nostalgic horror remakes have had a modest time at the box office in recent years. Although the recent Pet Sematary opened well, it had the aid of the resurgent Stephen King brand behind it and, notably, less direct competition afterward. Early comps for this title include 2015’s Poltergeist and 2013’s Carrie.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/3/2019 The Intruder $13,900,000 -13% $38,500,000 -13% 2,200 Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019 Long Shot $12,000,000 -4% $50,000,000   3,100 Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019 Uglydolls $13,500,000   $48,000,000   3,600 STX
5/10/2019 The Hustle $14,500,000   $41,000,000   Mirror Films / MGM
5/10/2019 Pokemon: Detective Pikachu $82,000,000 -9% $250,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/10/2019 Poms $9,500,000 -14% $40,000,000   STX
5/17/2019 A Dog’s Journey $11,500,000 5% $41,300,000 5% Sony / Columbia
5/17/2019 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $37,000,000 6% $106,000,000 6% Lionsgate / Summit
5/17/2019 The Sun Is Also a Star $12,500,000 4% $36,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/24/2019 Aladdin $80,000,000   $220,000,000   Disney
5/24/2019 Booksmart n/a   n/a   Annapurna Pictures
5/24/2019 BrightBurn n/a   n/a   Sony / Columbia
5/31/2019 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $54,000,000   $144,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/31/2019 Ma $24,000,000   $63,000,000   Universal
5/31/2019 Rocketman $37,000,000   $165,000,000   Paramount
6/7/2019 Dark Phoenix $47,000,000   $113,000,000   Fox
6/7/2019 Late Night n/a   n/a     Amazon Studios
6/7/2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $80,000,000   $263,000,000   Universal
6/14/2019 Men In Black International $39,000,000   $107,000,000   Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019 Shaft (2019) $31,000,000   $100,000,000   Warner Bros.
6/21/2019 Anna n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / Summit
6/21/2019 Child’s Play (2019) $17,000,000 NEW $42,500,000 NEW Orion Pictures
6/21/2019 Toy Story 4 $113,000,000 NEW $390,000,000 NEW Disney / Pixar

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1553617519041-1'); });

News Stories