Following Creed III‘s breakout debut last week, the box office is well on its way into a long-expected March boom of consecutive theatrical hits as Scream VI next leads the charge.
This week’s rundown analysis, ranges, and holdover forecasts are below.
PROS:
- Scream VI has continued to track well thanks to the combination of goodwill coming in from last year’s “requel” and its having earned $81.6 million domestically. Another round of healthy reviews (currently 80 percent from 55 critics on Rotten Tomatoes) should help bring back faithful fans, while s the presence of Wednesday star Jenna Ortega and a considerable social media presence are helping to bolster appeal among young women. A strong premium footprint, including 3D, is in play as well.
- Creed III looks to start developing its staying power as a primarily male-driven film with diverse audience turnout sending it to $58.4 million in its debut last week. Reception has been very enthusiastic with a 96 percent audience score currently. The film will retain some premium footprint this week.
- 65 will hope to court sci-fi action fans and target moviegoers that have already seen Creed III and/or aren’t interested in Scream VI this weekend. Pre-sales compare favorably against films like Ambulance and Plane.
- Champions looks to counter the headliners with an inspirational sports comedy-drama that might generate appeal across a variety of audiences and families.
CONS:
- As noted in previous tracking reports, Scream VI‘s primary downside has been the lack of a similar nostalgia push that last year’s predecessor generated in bringing back the entire original cast.
- Sony dated and began marketing 65 at a fairly late stage after numerous delays, which doesn’t inspire significant confidence in playability as the film’s review embargo also has yet to come down. It will also lack the kind of premium screen ticket price boosts enjoyed by films like Ambulance, Plane, Moonfall, etc.
- As a Focus Features release, distribution and marketing reach for Champions are expected to be more modest with an eye toward long-term playability if word of mouth is strong.
Weekend Ranges
Scream VI
Opening Weekend Range: $36 – 44 million
65
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
Champions
Opening Weekend Range: $3 – 6 million
Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections
Current projection ranges call for a 1 to 6 percent decrease from last weekend’s $112.4 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 12 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Scream VI | Paramount Pictures | $41,400,000 | $41,400,000 | ~3,500 | NEW |
| Creed III | MGM | $27,700,000 | $102,300,000 | ~4,000 | -53% |
| 65 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | $9,600,000 | $9,600,000 | ~3,200 | NEW |
| Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | Disney & Marvel Studios | $7,300,000 | $198,300,000 | ~3,300 | -43% |
| Cocaine Bear | Universal Pictures | $6,300,000 | $51,900,000 | ~3,300 | -43% |
| Jesus Revolution | Lionsgate | $5,500,000 | $39,700,000 | ~2,600 | -35% |
| Champions | Focus Features | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | ~3,000 | NEW |
| Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village | Crunchyroll | $3,200,000 | $16,500,000 | ~1,750 | -68% |
| Avatar: The Way of Water | Disney & 20th Century Studios | $2,900,000 | $674,900,000 | ~2,000 | -20% |
| Puss in Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation | $2,300,000 | $180,300,000 | ~2,200 | -16% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
Share this post