Weekend Box Office Forecast (Updated): Sonic the Hedgehog Eyes Another Top Score as Brahms: The Boy 2 and The Call of the Wild Debut

Thursday Update: TruTV / WarnerMedia have confirmed to Boxoffice that Impractical Jokers: The Movie will release in 357 locations this weekend. Rough pre-sales observations indicate the comedy could over-perform in a noticeable way with a dark horse chance at entering the top ten as the distributor has focused its release efforts on fan hot spots. Still, we’re opting to hold off on forecasts given the unique strategy.

Wednesday Report: Following its breakout debut over Presidents Day weekend, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog is on course for a repeat victory lap this coming with what could easily be another $30 million-plus domestically. The hit video game adaptation earned a fantastic $70 million four-day bow previously and will cross the $100 million threshold in its sophomore frame.

Entering the market this weekend, and hoping to attract some of Sonic‘s shared family audience, is 20th Century Studios’ The Call of the Wild. Dog films have proliferated the box office in recent years — and seen generally diminishing returns as a result. In this adaptation’s favor, though, are mostly positive reviews (73 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently) and the potential appeal of star Harrison Ford among older audiences. (On the downside, Ford’s films outside his most iconic roles have had a tendency to under-perform since the turn of the century.)

Pre-release trends had compared favorably with A Dog’s Purpose in recent weeks, though the aforementioned Sonic crossover with families has us a bit more cautious now.

Meanwhile, STX will drop Brahms: The Boy 2 as the latest horror offering of early 2020 — of which there have been quite a few already, none of them truly standing out at the box office. Tracking models don’t indicate that narrative will change this weekend, unfortunately, as the sequel hasn’t been heavily marketed and isn’t generating the kind of footprint STX’s low-to-mid-double-digit-million-openers generally do. We’re also concerned the second frame of Fantasy Island and the release of next week’s The Invisible Man will further soften demand for the sequel that comes four years after its predecessor’s solid run.

Not to be forgotten is the release of Impractical Jokers: The Movie, which sources tell Boxoffice is driving healthy pre-sales. Unfortunately, though, we haven’t received a confirmed location count from its distributor, so the film is excluded from our forecast for now.

Weekend Ranges

  • Sonic the Hedgehog ($30 – 35 million second weekend)
  • Brahms: The Boy 2 ($4 – 9 million opening weekend)
  • The Call of the Wild ($10 – 15 million opening weekend)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline approximately 20 to 25 percent from the same frame one year ago when How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opened to a strong $55 million as part of an overall $110.7 million post-Presidents Day weekend top ten aggregate.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 23 % Change from Last Wknd
Sonic the Hedgehog Paramount $31,000,000 $110,000,000 -47%
The Call of the Wild 20th Century Studios $13,000,000 $13,000,000 NEW
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) Warner Bros. $9,600,000 $75,400,000 -44%
Bad Boys for Life Sony / Columbia $6,300,000 $191,200,000 -45%
Brahms: The Boy 2 STX $5,600,000 $5,600,000 NEW
1917 Universal $4,900,000 $152,500,000 -39%
Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island Sony / Columbia $4,100,000 $19,600,000 -67%
The Photograph Universal $3,800,000 $18,500,000 -69%
Jumanji: The Next Level Sony / Columbia $3,400,000 $311,400,000 -39%
Parasite Neon $3,100,000 $48,800,000 -45%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday

The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films

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