Weekend Box Office Forecast (Updated / Final): Top Gun: Maverick on Cruise Control for Sophomore Frame Victory After Memorial Day Records

Photo Credits: Paramount Pictures & Claudio Miranda ("Top Gun: Maverick")

Friday Morning Final Forecast: With no new releases to muddy the waters this weekend, and exceptional weekday holds influencing Top Gun: Maverick‘s second weekend expectations, our final forecast for the blockbuster Tom Cruise sequel’s sophomore frame has been updated and added to the chart below.

All other forecasts below are true to their previous Wednesday morning models.

Wednesday Morning Report: Tom Cruise lifted the domestic box office to new all-time heights for Memorial Day weekend, and now Top Gun: Maverick is poised for another clear victory in its second frame.

The acclaimed sequel is likely to claim the best second weekend performance of any Memorial opener in history, a title currently held by Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull with $44.75 million in 2008.

Breaking multiple all-time Memorial records last week, Maverick is soaring with audiences across the domestic market as it now hopes to turn that momentum into a leggy run. The film’s audience and critic marks are nothing short of stellar, and the lack of major openers this weekend will help pad its early staying power.

The lack of a new tentpole or high profile summer movie opening the week after Memorial Day has happened before, but was fairly uncommon in pre-pandemic years. It’s an industry move that allows Maverick breathing room before Jurassic World Dominion hits on June 10. From there, the heart of summer moviegoing will be in full swing as major releases hit cinemas nearly every week through July and early August.

Past Memorial openers are naturally ones to look at for Top Gun‘s prospective hold, but most faced significant competition in their sophomore frames (and/or did not have near the audience reception of Maverick). Solo: A Star Wars Story slid 65 percent in 2019, while older comparisons like Men In Black 3 and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull dropped 49 and 55 percent, respectively.

Beyond the aforementioned Crystal Skull record for sophomore weekend performances after bowing over the May holiday, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End is just a hair behind Indy at $44.2 million, while 2019’s live action Aladdin wasn’t far off either with $42.8 million.

Maverick also has some front-loading aspects to shed since Paramount included two days’ worth of pre-Thursday grosses in last weekend’s haul, not to mention Thursday “previews” themselves began as early as 3pm. The film’s “four-day” haul of $160.5 million technically included more than five days’ worth of showtimes — but that’s irrelevant in the macro scheme of things given the enormous success of the film.

On the new release front, two films will go into limited release this weekend: David Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future for NEON and IFC Film’s Watcher. Location count and box office projections are somewhat volatile, but one or both could sneak into the weekend top ten at the box office.

Opening Weekend Ranges

Top Gun: Maverick
Second Weekend Range: $68 – 84 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projections call for a 40 to 45 percent decrease from last weekend’s $174.5 million top ten aggregate (three-day). 

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 5 Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures $74,700,000 $280,000,000 ~4,735 -41%
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Disney & Marvel Studios $9,700,000 $388,300,000 ~3,700 -40%
The Bob’s Burgers Movie 20th Century Studios (Disney) $5,000,000 $23,100,000 ~3,425 -60%
Downton Abbey: A New Era Focus Features $3,500,000 $35,400,000 ~3,500 -39%
The Bad Guys Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation $3,200,000 $86,700,000 ~2,800 -27%
Everything Everywhere All at Once A24 $1,900,000 $60,300,000 ~1,400 -23%
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Paramount Pictures $1,700,000 $188,000,000 ~2,000 -31%
Crimes of the Future NEON $1,300,000 $1,300,000 ~900 NEW
The Lost City Paramount Pictures $1,000,000 $103,600,000 ~700 -50%
Watcher IFC Films $500,000 $500,000 ~900 NEW

*All forecasts are subject to revision before the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studiosThe above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photo Credits: Paramount Pictures & Claudio Miranda ("Top Gun: Maverick")

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