Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
After last weekend’s $166.0 million debut Warner’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will have no problem remaining in first place at the box office this weekend. However, as a result of poor critical reviews, mixed word of mouth and built-in front-loading to begin with, Batman v Superman looks to experience a very sharp second weekend percentage decline. Even with the relative lack of new competition entering the marketplace this weekend, BoxOffice expects Batman v Superman to fall off a bit harder than the 65 percent 2013’s Man of Steel declined in its second weekend. With that said, Batman v Superman is also set to zoom past the $250 million domestic mark this weekend.
Disney’s Zootopia should continue to claim second place this weekend. The blockbuster computer animated film will pass the $250 million domestic mark on Wednesday and continues to display tremendous holding power, thanks in part to very strong word of mouth. Animated films in general also tend to hold up very well the weekend after Easter.
The weekend’s highest profile wide release, Pure Flix’s God’s Not Dead 2, looks poised for a healthy third place debut. The follow-up to 2014’s God’s Not Dead has been performing especially well on Twitter in the weeks leading up to the film’s release. Also entering the marketplace in semi-wide release this weekend is Freestyle’s Meet the Blacks, while Bleecker Street’s Eye in the Sky and Roadside’s Hello, My Name Is Doris will both expand into semi-wide release.
God’s Not Dead 2:
PROS:
– 2014’s God’s Not Dead was a surprise hit, as it opened with $9.2 million (from just 780 locations) and went on to gross $60.8 million domestically thanks to terrific holding power.
– God’s Not Dead 2 will have a significant opening weekend location count advantage over its predecessor, as it is estimated to open in 2,200 locations.
– God’s Not Dead 2 has been performing very strong on Twitter, especially for a faith-based film. In addition, God’s Not Dead 2 has also generated stronger Twitter activity than 13 Hours did leading up to its release back in January.
CONS:
– God’s Not Dead 2 arrives in the marketplace shortly after fellow faith-based films Risen and Miracles from Heaven have both performed well. That is likely to limit demand for God’s Not Dead 2 a bit.
– While Twitter activity has still been strong in general for God’s Not Dead 2 this week, at the same time the film has failed to build momentum on Twitter this week. That could point towards inflated online activity levels being driven largely by the film’s pre-established fanbase.
– Pure Flix’s Do You Believe? underperformed last year with a $3.6 million debut and a final domestic gross of just $13.0 million. That performance is a concerning one for God’s Not Dead 2, especially since it has a different cast than its predecessor did.
Top 10 Forecast
BoxOffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will total $125.3 million. That would represent a sizable 42 percent decline from the $216.7 million top ten total of the same weekend last year. That frame was led by the $147.2 million break-out start of Universal’s Furious 7 and also saw Fox’s Home take in $27.0 million in its second weekend of release.
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Weekend | Domestic Total Through Sunday, Apr 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | Mar 25, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $55,000,000 | $264,000,000 |
| Zootopia | Mar 4, 2016 | Disney | $19,500,000 | $275,000,000 |
| God’s Not Dead 2 | Apr 1, 2016 | Pure Flix | $14,500,000 | $14,500,000 |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 | Mar 25, 2016 | Universal | $11,000,000 | $36,300,000 |
| Miracles from Heaven | Mar 16, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $6,800,000 | $46,200,000 |
| The Divergent Series: Allegiant | Mar 18, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $5,300,000 | $55,800,000 |
| 10 Cloverfield Lane | Mar 11, 2016 | Paramount | $3,600,000 | $62,300,000 |
| Deadpool | Feb 12, 2016 | Fox | $3,500,000 | $355,000,000 |
| Meet the Blacks | Apr 1, 2016 | Freestyle Releasing | $3,400,000 | $3,400,000 |
| Eye in the Sky | Mar 11, 2016 | Bleecker Street | $2,700,000 | $4,800,000 |
| Hello, My Name Is Doris | Mar 11, 2016 | Roadside Attractions | $2,500,000 | $6,700,000 |
Share this post