Weekend Forecast: Breakthrough, The Curse of La Llorona, & Penguins

It may only be mid-April, but the coming weekend represents the final frame before “summer” movie season kicks off with a little movie from Disney and Marvel. Before that, though, a trio of new releases will enter the market over Easter weekend. Will any of them challenge the reigning Shazam!, though?

PROS:

  • Debuting on Wednesday, Fox’s Breakthrough is hoping to attract faith-based audiences that drove previous films like Miracles from Heaven and Heaven Is for Real to successful box office runs over Easter. The film’s star, Chrissy Metz, could provide additional appeal to fans of This Is Us.
  • Also debuting on Wednesday, Penguins marks the latest Disneynature release timed close to Earth Day (landing on Monday this year). The brand has proven generally consistent with past box office performances, and we expect similar results here based on pre-release tracking.
  • Hoping to attract fans of the Conjuring universe with its well-advertised franchise connections, The Curse of La Llorona is aiming to ride the horror genre’s streak of low-budget financial winners. Appeal to teens and Latinx audiences are notable this weekend.
  • Thanks to Easter landing later on the calendar this year, that means the start to this weekend will be Good Friday — translating to stronger-than-usual business on that day (particularly for films with significant appeal to kids).

CONS:

  • The Curse of La Llorona will need to overcome poor critical reviews if it hopes to beat expectations this weekend. Tracking is also decidedly mixed.
  • In general, we expect the soft market to linger again this weekend as next week’s Avengers: Endgame continues overshadowing everything around it. With the Marvel finale’s staggering level of pre-sales to date, combined with the fact that many moviegoers will be spending Easter Sunday with family, many will likely stay home this weekend.

Opening Weekend Ranges

  • Breakthrough: $14 – 18 million (5-day)
  • Penguins: $4 – 8 million (5-day)
  • The Curse of La Llorona: $14 – 19 million

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decrease 17 – 22 percent from the same weekend last year. That frame earned $106.6 million across the top ten as I Feel Pretty ($16.0 million), Super Troopers 2 ($15.2 million), and Traffik ($3.9 million) debuted one week before Avengers: Infinity War.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 21 % Change from Last Wknd
Shazam! Warner Bros. $17,500,000 $121,000,000 -28%
The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. / New Line $16,900,000 $16,900,000 NEW
Breakthrough Fox $13,000,000 $16,100,000 NEW
Little Universal $8,000,000 $28,600,000 -48%
Captain Marvel Disney / Marvel $6,400,000 $397,000,000 -26%
Dumbo Disney $6,000,000 $100,600,000 -36%
Penguins Disney / Disneynature $4,500,000 $6,200,000 NEW
Pet Sematary (2019) Paramount $4,200,000 $48,700,000 -57%
Missing Link United Artists Releasing $4,100,000 $13,000,000 -31%
Hellboy (2019) Lionsgate / Summit $4,000,000 $19,700,000 -67%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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