This weekend marks the release of four new films, with two opening wide (The Foreigner and Happy Death Day) and two debuting in moderate release (Marshall and Professor Marston & the Wonder Women). Our analyses and forecast:
- Jackie Chan’s fans are eager for his return to live action in The Foreigner (STXfilms), the first he’s done since 2010’s The Karate Kid remake. The film’s overseas run has been strong with over $75 million tallied thus far, while Facebook activity has been comparable to 2014’s original John Wick. Director Martin Campbell’s history with the James Bond franchise is also a positive in favor of the film, with his efforts and Chan’s performance giving hope the film could leg out a solid multiplier.
- Marking the second horror title to debut on a “Friday the 13th” this year (following January’s The Bye Bye Man), Happy Death Day (Universal) is poised to leverage its PG-13 rating and teen appeal into another successful micro-budget release from Blumhouse. Twitter activity is comparable to that of last October’s Ouija: Origin of Evil, while Facebook growth is significantly ahead of the aforementioned Bye Bye Man.
- Marshall (Open Road) will aim to attract adult audiences in a bit of counter-programming as Chadwick Boseman takes on another historical figure after his turns as Jackie Robinson (42) and James Brown (Get On Up). Reviews (78 percent, 7.1/10 from 9 critics) are initially positive, but not likely to sway things one way or the other.
- Professor Marston & the Wonder Women (Annapurna) is striking while the iron of Wonder Woman success is hot, aiming to convert its positive Rotten Tomatoes score (87 percent, 7.4/10 rating from 31 reviews) into a successful under-the-radar run. Twitter activity has improved in recent days as the promotional campaign has kicked in.
- The Foreigner may have a difficult time siphoning away older male audiences from the handful of films aiming for that crowd which are already in the market — namely Blade Runner 2049 which has been posting encouraging day-to-day holds despite opening well below industry-wide and our own expectations last weekend. Twitter activity is also modest at this stage.
- Happy Death Day is trailing the comparable Twitter activity of Bye Bye Man, although that’s a minor concern next to the fact that IT is still performing well deep into its run and could bring back some of the older teen/young 20-something crowd that Friday the 13th will inevitably attract. The current embargo on reviews is also a concern.
- Open Road’s recent decision to open Marshall in moderate release (821 locations) has significantly lowered forecasts for the film, in addition to lukewarm Twitter trends (where the film trails the likes of Detroit and The Birth of a Nation).
- Professor Marston will almost certainly limit itself to arthouse crowds as the film’s prominent subject of polygamy isn’t fodder for most casual audiences or middle America moviegoers. Facebook activity is also very modest ahead of release.
Top 10 Weekend Forecast:
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, October 15||% Change|
|Happy Death Day||Universal||$20,000,000||$20,000,000||NEW|
|Blade Runner 2049||Warner Bros. / Sony / Alcon||$15,700,000||$61,700,000||-52%|
|IT||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$6,100,000||$315,500,000||-39%|
|The Mountain Between Us||Fox||$5,800,000||$20,900,000||-45%|
|Kingsman: The Golden Circle||Fox||$5,300,000||$90,100,000||-39%|
|My Little Pony: The Movie||Lionsgate||$5,000,000||$16,900,000||-44%|
|The LEGO Ninjago Movie||Warner Bros.||$4,400,000||$52,200,000||-37%|
|Victoria & Abdul||Focus Features||$3,130,000*||$12,060,000||-25%|
* denotes expected count of ~732 theaters
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report