The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 6 – June 8, 2025
Week 23 | June 6 – June 8, 2025
1. From the World of John Wick: Ballerina
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $32M – $40M
Showtime Marketshare: 15%
Pros
- From the World of John Wick: Ballerina is the fifth film in the little franchise that could, which began with the sleeper 2014 movie featuring Keanu Reeves as an unstoppable assassin within an intricate society of killers. Movie #1 was a hit at $87.7M WW, but each successive sequel has shown many multiples of growth in the marketplace despite restrictive R-ratings and budgets generally under $100M. The ideal model for this new movie would be Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, directed by original John Wick filmmaker David Leitch and earning $760.7M globally with nary a hint of Vin Diesel. Ballerina lead Ana de Armas has made two films prior with Reeves (Knock Knock, Exposed), building her stardom in both big franchises (Blade Runner 2049, No Time to Die) as well as more dramatic outings (Knives Out, Blonde).
- Principal photography for Ballerina began in late 2022, followed by the filmmakers heavily tinkering with the film in post-production, adding more show-stopping action to make it cohesive with the rest of the series. Marketing is leaning heavily on Keanu Reeves’ presence, which does add legitimacy to the enterprise, even though he reportedly shot for only eight days on the picture. It will be close, yet our panel thinks there’s enough goodwill from the Wick fanbase to help this one eek past Lilo & Stitch for the top spot… but it will be a razor-thin margin, with word-of-mouth a huge factor.
Cons
- Lionsgate very much needs a hit. So far this year, modest action vehicles like Den of Thieves 2 and Flight Risk have failed to bring home the bacon, so they’re betting on this spin-off to solidify the “World of John Wick” as a viable franchise even without Keanu himself front and center. Lionsgate’s insistence on “spoiler-free enthusiasm” for early social reactions to the film drew the ire of critics and presents a bad omen for the potential reception of the title. If the John Wick angle works, this movie could open in first place domestically. Showtime market share isn’t looking great for the title, occupying 15% of all showtimes in the country behind Lilo & Stitch‘s 19%.
2. Lilo & Stitch
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $32M – $36M
Showtime Marketshare: 19%
Pros
- After a record Memorial Day debut, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch remake continues to kill it by holding #1 to the tune of $61.8M (down from $63M Sunday estimates). Even though we’re giving Ballerina the edge going into the weekend, that movie is on the knife’s edge of floundering the same way Karate Kid: Legends did this past frame. If that happens, the cuddly blue alien will be there to keep his flag planted at the top of the charts. Lilo & Stitch also has a lead in showtime marketshare, leading all films in the domestic market with 19% of total weekend showtimes.
Cons
- This is Lilo & Stitch‘s last frame to take advantage of its family monopoly before Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon breathes fire on it with an arguably stronger IP and a brand-new Orlando theme park to boot (synergy!). If that’s not enough to take the wind out of its sails, Disney starts competing with itself the following weekend as Pixar’s Elio brings original storytelling into the mix. That last one is tracking soft right now, but could leg it out Elemental-style if kid audiences buy into it. In any case, we’re about to enter the most competitive period for family animation this summer and perhaps the year.
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Paramount Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- This past weekend Paramount’s epic franchise conclusion Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning managed to deflect the roundhouse kicks of Karate Kid: Legends to maintain #2 status with a -57% drop to $27.2M. The Tom Cruise promotional juggernaut clearly made an impression, especially in China where the movie opened to a whopping #1 take of $25.2M, instantly becoming the top market for the film. This weekend, our panel predicts another drop in the -50% arena as it continues to score big in IMAX, earning $5.6M last frame for 21% of the weekend total.
Cons
- While How to Train Your Dragon is poised to put the hurt on Lilo & Stitch when it opens June 13, the shot-for-IMAX live-action remake will steal Tom Cruise’s thunder as well by commandeering those big format screens. That could make this frame a final reckoning for The Final Reckoning as the magic dragon makes way for other toys. The global total on the eighth Mission currently stands at $356.36M, below franchise-low Mission: Impossible III. Even with that flood of Chinese cash, at some point the studio will have to reckon with the fact that they way overspent on this movie. Despite ranking third on our forecasting prediction for the weekend, the film currently occupies fourth place in showtime marketshare with 9%, trailing directly behind Karate Kid Legends‘ 11%.
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