The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 17 – 19, 2025
Week 42 | October 17 – 19, 2025
1. Black Phone 2
Universal Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $20M – $25M
Showtime Marketshare: 16%
Pros
- When the thriller The Black Phone opened in July 2022, it debuted in fourth place with $23.6 million. Now director Scott Derrickson and the entire original cast (including Ethan Hawke as The Grabber) are returning for Black Phone 2, which elevates the danger and supernatural elements to Nightmare on Elm Street levels. Our panel is predicting an opening to match the first movie, with the possibility of continued play throughout Halloween season if audience reaction is as good as critical so far (Rotten Tomatoes 85%) out of the film’s successful Fantastic Fest bow.
Cons
- In a year when we’ve seen huge horror debuts like Conjuring: Last Rites ($84M), Weapons ($43.5M), and Sinners ($48M), a mid-$20M start for Black Phone 2 is solid but not spectacular. There’s also the Blumhouse factor, with none of the horror house’s past eight major theatrical releases debuting north of $12M. Having no hits since Five Nights at Freddy’s in 2023, Blumhouse could use a win and a new viable franchise, especially after the collapse of M3GAN 2.0 this summer.
2. Tron: Ares
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $13M – $17M
Showtime Marketshare: 15%
Pros
- After developing a follow-up to Tron: Legacy for 15 years, Disney dropped Tron: Ares into a non-competitive fall slot where it underperformed with $33.2M for the domestic weekend. The good news out of the weekend was an 87% audience score on top of a GA 4 out of 5 stars through PostTrak. This audience response is better than Legacy’s, so hopefully that will translate to a degree of longevity during a month bereft of similar tentpoles. As stated on Sunday, Ares has ultimately done its job as a promotional vehicle for the Disney parks Tron rollercoaster ride (which has been re-skinned with Ares graphics and Nine Inch Nails music), even if the grosses underwhelm with a likely over -50% drop in Frame 2.
Cons
- Accounting for Disney parks synergy and ancillary revenue, it is still very difficult to spin the current $63.58M global gross on Ares as anything but another splash of red ink for the studio. In a year that includes high-profile misses like Snow White and Elio, Disney’s superpowers of branding and IP are starting to wane. As for the third film in a Tron series that has historically lost money with each installment, the blame can hardly be shouldered by star Jared Leto, with one major agency partner telling THR this week, “You could have had Ryan Gosling, it wasn’t going to work.”
3. Good Fortune
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Comedian Aziz Ansari makes his directorial debut while also co-starring in Lionsgate’s Good Fortune, an R-rated existential comedy about a “budget guardian angel” named Gabriel (Keanu Reeves) trying to help various LA residents played by Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, and Sandra Oh. With Tron: Ares expected to slide this frame, Good Fortune should offer modest counter-programming against Black Phone on a middling weekend. Rotten Tomatoes is at a solid 84%, which might help the film reach the upper levels of our forecast. Vintage comps for angelic comedies include 1978’s Heaven Can Wait ($98M), 1994’s Angels in the Outfield ($50M), 1996’s Michael ($95.3M), 1998’s City of Angels ($78.7M), and 2001’s Down to Earth ($64.2M), alongside many that did not work (Almost an Angel, Date With an Angel, The Preacher’s Wife, Dogma, etc).
Cons
- There was a time when a high-concept comedy with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves would have shot straight to the top, but we’re a long way away from the early 2010s. Good Fortune will likely debut in the realm of 2009’s Rogen vehicle Observe & Report ($11M opening/$24M domestic), which also featured Aziz Ansari. The new film’s opening will also be in line with Rogen’s Long Shot ($9.7M debut), 50/50 ($8.6M debut), and Zack and Miri Make a Porno ($10M debut).
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